All but one of this weekend's six NFL wild-card games feature a spread under five points. Buckle up.
NFL wild-card weekend narrative: Two games are practically pick'ems: the Buffalo Bills vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Green Bay Packers vs. the Chicago Bears. The one game with clear blowout potential takes place in Carolina, where the Panthers host the Los Angeles Rams as a double-digit underdog.
Check out our staff's NFL ATS predictions for the wild-card round, kicking off the start of the playoffs.
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NFL ATS predictions
NorthStar Bets' Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin and Chris Toman offer up their NFL ATS predictions for every playoff game on wild-card weekend.
NFL odds as of 3 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jan. 8, 2026.
NFL ATS picks: Saturday's wild-card doubleheader
Rams vs. Panthers (Saturday, Jan. 10: 4:30 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Los Angeles -10.5
Perri says: There's a reason Carolina is the largest home underdog in NFL playoff history. The Panthers lost their last two games and still made the postseason despite an 8-9 record and a -69 point differential. Take a bow, NFC South.
Los Angeles, meanwhile, owns the league's best scoring offence (30.5 PPG) behind Matthew Stafford and a star-studded core.
The Panthers did beat the Rams at home in Week 13 as huge underdogs, but I can't see that happening again. This should be a wire-to-wire blowout.
Staff picks: Perri (LAR) | Horrobin (CAR) | Toman (LAR)
Packers vs. Bears (Saturday, Jan. 10: 8 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Green Bay -1
Horrobin says: I don't trust either of these teams to make a deep playoff run, but I do think Chicago is well-equipped to at least win one home game over its fiercest rival.
The Bears needed some good fortune to beat the Packers at home a few weeks ago, recovering a late onside kick en route to scoring 10 points in the final two minutes and winning in overtime. But that's part of a bigger picture in which Chicago is 6-1-1 ATS in its past eight games.
As for Green Bay, two massive injuries have left this defence with the 29th-ranked success rate since Week 13 (per RBSDM.com). The Packers lost four in a row to finish the regular season.
Staff picks: Perri (CHI) | Horrobin (CHI) | Toman (CHI)
Against the spread playoff picks
Bills vs. Jaguars (Sunday, Jan. 11: 1 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Buffalo -1
Perri says: Betting against Josh Allen is scary, but Buffalo’s defence has failed him time and time again in the postseason. The Bills have a 0-4 road playoff record with Allen under centre, despite his 94.9 passer rating and 8:1 TD-to-INT ratio.
I expect that unit to leave him hanging again. The Bills' run defence has been horrible, ranking bottom five in yards per rush (5.1), rushing yards per game (136.2), and EPA per rush.
Jacksonville is the hottest team in the league, winning eight straight games by an average margin of 19.1 points. In that span, the Jags rank first in defensive EPA per play while scoring 33.6 points.
Trevor Lawrence is playing well enough to match Allen in a shootout, but I don't think that will be necessary. Give me the Jags at home.
Staff picks: Perri (JAX) | Horrobin (JAX) | Toman (BUF)
49ers vs. Eagles (Sunday, Jan. 11: 4:30 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Philadelphia -4.5
Toman says: This feels like a lot of points to bank with the 49ers, who ended the season as one of the hottest teams in the NFL.
Their final game was ugly, a 13-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, who had an NFL-best +191 point differential, with the No. 1 seed in the NFC at stake.
That marked San Francisco's lone loss since Brock Purdy's return in Week 11, as it went 6-1 straight up and 5-1-1 ATS to close out the season.
While the 49ers took care of weaker competition down the stretch, they still flashed a dynamic offence more often than not. Dropping 35-plus points, something San Francisco did in three of its final four games, on the Eagles' excellent defence is unlikely.
But the 49ers have the more trustworthy offence and I don't think the Eagles will score enough to turn this into a route, if they even win at all.
Philadelphia averaged 22.3 PPG, third-worst among playoff teams and a considerable drop from the 29.0 it put up a season ago.
Staff picks: Perri (PHI) | Horrobin (SF) | Toman (SF)
Chargers vs. Patriots (Sunday, Jan. 11: 8 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: New England -3.5
Horrobin says: What a sophomore surge it's been for Drake Maye, who led the NFL in completion percentage and yards per attempt in an MVP-calibre season.
I want to ride with Maye and the Patriots at home against the climate-controlled Chargers. New England is 7-3-1 ATS as a favourite this year, posting an NFL-best +14.8 average point differential in those games.
In their past 12 games, the Patriots have covered this number 10 times.
The Chargers are at risk of missing Omarion Hampton, who didn't practice on Wednesday or Thursday, and they're just 3-5-0 ATS on the road this year.
Staff picks: Perri (LAC) | Horrobin (NE) | Toman (LAC)
Monday Night Football ATS pick
Texans vs. Steelers (Monday, Jan. 12: 8:15 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Houston -3
Perri says: Pittsburgh hit its stride to close out the regular season, going 4-1 while allowing just 19.6 PPG. That included wins over Detroit and Baltimore (twice), with DK Metcalf and T.J. Watt both missing time.
Both playmakers will suit up in this wild-card duel, which I expect the Steelers to win. Why? C.J. Stroud’s road splits are impossible to ignore.
He went 1-3 against playoff teams on the road this year while posting a 4:6 TD-to-INT ratio. The lone win came indoors at SoFi Stadium against the Chargers.
In the playoffs on the road, Stroud’s Texans have scored 24 points across two losses. He should struggle against a surging defence in the cold.
Staff picks: Perri (PIT) | Horrobin (PIT) | Toman (PIT)
NFL regular season ATS records:
- Toman: 134-130-8
- Perri: 133-131-8
- Horrobin: 123-141-8
