The Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills kick off Sunday's wild-card slate with an epic quarterback duel.
The pregame narrative: Josh Allen has done everything but win a Super Bowl in the NFL, and Buffalo is a slim 1-point favourite as it looks for an elusive road playoff win. That means getting past Trevor Lawrence, who played at an MVP level to end the season, leading Jacksonville to a 13-4 record.
Check out my Bills vs. Jaguars predictions for Jan. 11, featuring both quarterbacks in a +340 SGP.
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Bills vs. Jaguars predictions
SGP: Jaguars moneyline | Lawrence 20+ rushing yards | Allen 225+ passing yards (+340)
Jaguars moneyline (-103): Bills fans know nothing but pain, and I think the NFL's hottest team will administer a lethal dose on Sunday.
Jacksonville has won eight straight games by an average margin of 19.1 points, behind an electric offence and stonewall defence.
Since Week 10 (stats via RBSDM.com):
- Offence: 33.6 PPG, 6th in EPA per play
- Defence: 14.5 PPG, 1st in EPA per play
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The Jags' defence is playing on another level right now, and I trust it will slow Allen down. The Bills have averaged a solid 25.0 PPG on the road, but that's much lower than their 31.2 PPG mark at home.
More importantly, I can't picture Buffalo's defence holding up against Jacksonville's run game.
The Bills' D ranks bottom five in yards per rush (5.1), rushing yards per game (136.2) and EPA per rush.
Allen is 0-4 on the road in the playoffs in his career, and his supporting cast isn't good enough to buck that trend.
Bills vs. Jaguars playoff picks
Lawrence 20+ rushing yards (-182): Lawrence has been a man possessed since Jacksonville's Week 8 bye, using his legs and arm to put up some gaudy stats (27 total TDs, 99.9 passer rating).
I want to focus on him as a rusher in this SGP.
T-Law didn't run much in a 34-point rout of the Tennessee Titans in Week 18. The last thing Jacksonville wanted was for him to take an unnecessary shot. But let's look at the nine games prior:
- 26.1 rushing yards/game
- 7-2 vs. this line
- 7 rushing TDs
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Buffalo has a bottom-of-the-barrel run defence, and Lawrence should leave everything on the line to secure a W on Sunday.
Josh Allen prop pick
Allen 225+ passing yards (-148): Buffalo's postseason shortcomings can't be laid at Allen's feet.
In 13 playoff games, the signal-caller has averaged 258.4 passing yards with a 101.7 passer rating, throwing 24 TDs to four INTs. He's also balled out on the road (four games):
- 279.3 passing yards/game
- 94.9 passer rating
- 8 TDs, 1 INT
Allen has logged at least 237 passing yards in every road playoff game, smashing this mark three times. On the whole, he's 9-4 against this line in the postseason.
The Jags' defence is fierce, but I expect Buffalo to be trailing and for Allen to be put in a pass-first mindset.
Even with an underwhelming receiving corps, the reigning MVP should clear this teased-down milestone.
Bills vs. Jaguars predictions made at 12:30 p.m. ET on Jan. 8, 2026.
