Super wild-card weekend has arrived, with six electric games on the slate.
NFL wild-card weekend narrative: All but one matchup features a spread inside five points, putting upsets in play across the board. Our staff's top moneyline bet is on the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are underdogs at home to the Houston Texans.
Check out our NFL wild-card best bets for the first round of the playoffs, featuring a prop bet on Josh Allen against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
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NFL wild-card best bets
NFL wild-card best bets were written by NorthStar Bets writers Avery Perri and Chris Toman.
Allen over 36.5 rushing yards (-112): The Jaguars allowed the fewest rushing yards per game and tied for the second-fewest yards per attempt. They've smothered the run and much of their competition, closing out the season on an eight-game winning streak.
But Allen is among the best runners at his position and has frequently demonstrated that when the stakes are highest.
The Buffalo Bills star has topped this total in four of his last five playoff games, shattering this number several times.
Allen, who cleared this line in 50% of his regular-season games, could be forced to use his legs more if James Cook struggles to gain yardage vs. the Jags' strong run defence.
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No team was thrown on more than the Jags, but Allen wasn't a volume thrower this season, so I don't think it's right to assume the Bills will attempt to win this game through the air.
That's not their style. Buffalo likes to run the ball and Allen can reel off big plays on the ground due to his strength and quickness.
But defences must also respect Allen's game-changing arm, which can create opportunities for him to scramble. Jacksonville didn't face many running threats at the QB position, so Allen should present an interesting test to this group.
A tough road playoff game is the perfect spot for the reigning MVP to showcase his full package.
-Toman
NFL wild-card weekend prop bet
Davante Adams anytime TD (-125): Adams is expected to return for the Rams on Saturday, which is a big shot in the arm for L.A.'s red zone offence.
The veteran was a menace inside the 10-yard line this year, leading all wideouts in the following categories:
- Targets (23)
- Catches (11)
- Touchdowns (11)
That's pretty remarkable, considering he only played 14 games.
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Adams had a strong outing against the Carolina Panthers in Week 13, hauling in two touchdowns.
He should be Matthew Stafford's choice target again, with Carolina's standout corner Jaycee Horn likely shadowing Puka Nacua all game.
-Perri
NFL wild-card upset pick: Bet on Steelers to win
Steelers moneyline (+155): The Texans enter the postseason on a 10-game winning streak and own the conference's best scoring defence.
It shouldn't come as a surprise that DeMeco Ryans' squad is a 3.5-point favourite against Pittsburgh, which had the worst point differential among AFC playoff teams (+10) and punched its ticket on the final day of the regular season.
Still, I think there's value to be had on the home side.
Houston's defence is elite, but Pittsburgh's has rounded into form as well.
The Steelers are 4-1 in their last five games, allowing 19.6 PPG. That includes victories over the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens (twice).
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In that span (Week 14 onward), the Texans rank eighth in defensive EPA per play, and the Steelers rank 14th.
Not a huge gap, considering Pittsburgh was also missing T.J. Watt for three of those games.
Call me crazy, but I trust Aaron Rodgers' offence more in this matchup.
C.J. Stroud hasn't impressed me this year and has struggled on the road against good teams.
- The Texans have played four playoff teams on the road, going 1-3. Stroud had four TDs and six INTs in those games.
- Stroud's career road splits (214 passing yards/game, 85.5 passer rating) are much worse than his home splits (258.9 passing yards/game, 101.2 passer rating).
With DK Metcalf back, I expect Rodgers to thrive in the cold weather as he did for a decade-plus in Green Bay.
-Perri
NFL playoff over/under prediction
Packers/Bears under 46.5 points (-117): The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears meet for a third time this season, which should give each team's defensive coordinator ample tape to grind.
On top of that, both teams love to run the rock, with Green Bay (48.71%) and Chicago (45.60%) ranking fifth and ninth, respectively, in run play percentage (per Team Rankings).
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I wouldn't be surprised to see that tick well north of 50% if the Windy City holds up to its name.
At the time of writing, the weather forecast in Chicago on Saturday night is ugly: Negative temperatures, snow, and 31 km/h sustained winds with 45 km/h gusts.
Jordan Love hasn't played in three weeks with a concussion, so I expect him to be rusty.
On the other side, Caleb Williams has struggled against Green Bay's secondary. He posted a 55.1 completion percentage and an 87.6 passer rating in two games this season.
The under on this total is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these rivals.
-Perri
