Two star running backs are the focal point of these NFL wild-card weekend prop bets.
NFL wild-card prop bets narrative: The Jacksonville Jaguars surprised everyone this year with a 13-win season, and they host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Travis Etienne should have a big workload against Buffalo's suspect defensive front. Elsewhere, look for Christian McCaffrey to be active as a pass-catcher.
Check out my top NFL wild-card prop bets, featuring a fade on Carolina Panthers QB Bryce Young.
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NFL wild-card prop bets
Best bet: Etienne over 15.5 rushing attempts (-118)
I was deliberating between backing Etienne to clear his rushing total (66.5 yards) or his rushing attempts.
Both make sense, but here's why I think this is the better play:
- Etienne is a bell cow: The fifth-year RB ranked eighth in carries this season (260), averaging 16.3 rushing attempts following Jacksonville's Week 8 bye.
- Buffalo's run defence: The Bills rank bottom five in yards per attempt (5.1), rushing yards per game (136.2) and RBSDM.com's EPA per rush. Liam Coen will be incentivized to pound the rock.
- Jacksonville's defence: The Jaguars rank first in EPA per play during their eight-game winning streak, allowing just 14.5 PPG.
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That last point is important because I can't imagine Buffalo running up the score and forcing Jacksonville into obvious passing downs.
Josh Allen can only do so much with a lacklustre receiving corps, and the Jaguars should put up enough points to keep a balanced game plan.
Key stat: Etienne is 6-4 against this line in his last 10 games, with at least 12 rushing attempts in each contest.
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Best NFL picks
Young over 0.5 INTs (-125): You know which team should run up the score? The Los Angeles Rams. That means Young will be forced into plenty of passing situations, and I don't think it'll end well.
- Carolina stumbled backward into the playoffs with consecutive losses and a season-long -69 point differential. The Panthers (+10.5) are the largest home underdogs in NFL postseason history.
- L.A. finished second in the vaunted NFC West and led the league in scoring (30.5 PPG) behind an MVP-calibre season from Matthew Stafford.
I expect the Rams to boat race the Panthers, and for Young to take some risks.
The 2023 No. 1 overall pick did have the best game of his career against L.A. in Week 13, completing 75.0% of his passes for three TDs and a 147.1 passer rating.
That won't scare me off this wager, though.
Young threw an interception in nine of 17 games this year and ranked 28th out of 35 qualified QBs in EPA per play. He also threw a pick in Weeks 17 and 18 to end the season.
NFL player prop prediction
McCaffrey over 5.5 receptions (+100): This is a tough matchup for McCaffrey and the San Francisco 49ers, who are tasked with cracking the Philadelphia Eagles' rabid defence.
Getting the run game going might be difficult, meaning Kyle Shanahan will have to scheme the ball into his best playmaker's hands.
That shouldn't be a problem. McCaffrey has a strong case to win Offensive Player of the Year thanks to his elite dual-threat abilities.
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- He hauled in 102 receptions for 924 receiving yards this year. Only five other position players had more catches than the tailback.
- CMC's 23.5% target share ranks in the 100th percentile among RBs, per Rotowire. That's just a shade under some big-name wideouts like Nico Collins and DeVonta Smith.
And it's not like the matchup is completely horrible, as Philly allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to RBs this year.
NFL wild-card prop bets made at 3:03 p.m. ET on Jan. 7, 2026.
