In a wild-card edition of Sunday Night Football, the New England Patriots host the Los Angeles Chargers at Gillette Stadium.
The pregame narrative: New England stacked 14 wins this year and is laying 3.5 points at home. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is 0-2 in the playoffs after quick exits in two of the previous three postseasons.
Check out my Chargers vs. Patriots picks, featuring predictions on Drake Maye and Keenan Allen in a +310 SGP.
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Chargers vs. Patriots picks
SGP: Patriots -2.5 | Maye 250+ pass/rush yards | Allen 30+ rec. yards (+310)
Patriots -2.5 (-152): The main criticism of the Patriots' breakout season was that they faced a supremely weak schedule. And that's a pretty fair point.
But are we just going to gloss over the fact that they dominated that schedule? I certainly won't.
- New England had a +170 point differential, which was 32 points better than anyone else in the AFC (and 142 points ahead of L.A.).
- The Pats went 7-3-1 ATS as favourites and posted an NFL-high +14.8 average point differential in those games.
- They covered a -2.5 spread in 10 of their final 12 games. The outliers were a one-point win over Atlanta and a four-point loss to Buffalo (after building a 21-0 lead).
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Sunday night's weather shouldn't be much of a factor, but I still like the idea of fading the Chargers in an outdoor game that's a long way from home. L.A. is 3-5-0 ATS on the road this season.
Chargers vs. Patriots prop prediction
Maye 250+ passing/rushing yards (-190): Matthew Stafford is probably going to win NFL MVP, but Maye has a stellar case of his own.
Maye led the NFL in completion percentage, yards per attempt, passer rating, completion percentage over expectation, EPA per play and more.
He didn't put up the gaudiest overall numbers, but his efficiency and sharp decision-making led to 258.5 passing yards per game.
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Maye isn't a running quarterback, per se, but his mobility is an asset when he chooses to take off. He rushed for more than 20 yards in five of his final six games this season.
For a guy who averaged 284.9 passing/rushing yards on the season and went 14-3 vs. this line, I think this is a great add to the parlay.
SGP prediction: Keenan Allen pick
Allen 30+ receiving yards (-141): Allen's age-33 season was his quietest, but he's still a good bet to cash this yardage milestone most of the time. I'll gladly buy in at this price.
- The 13-year vet played all 17 games this season and averaged 45.7 yards. He went 13-4 vs. this prop.
- Allen led the Chargers in total targets (122) and receptions per game (4.8).
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Los Angeles didn't have a true alpha receiver this year, evidenced by the fact that four pass-catchers finished between 650 and 800 yards.
When Herbert spreads the love, Allen is bound to get his share.
Chargers vs. Patriots picks made at 12:25 p.m. on Jan. 9, 2025.
