The Los Angeles Chargers host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football in Week 10.
The pregame narrative: Pittsburgh is coming off its biggest win of the season, beating the Indianapolis Colts at home. But the Steelers' defence remains suspect, and Los Angeles is a 3-point home favourite despite several key injuries on the offensive line.
Check out my Steelers vs. Chargers picks for Nov. 9, featuring a prop bet on Ladd McConkey.
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Steelers vs. Chargers picks
Best Bet: McConkey 6+ receptions (-139)
Which version of the Steelers' defence are we going to get?
The one that allowed 33 points to the near-AARP-eligible Joe Flacco, or the one that forced six turnovers and bottled up the Colts?
I'm not sure, but I really don't think it matters for this prop.
Pittsburgh's defence is reliant on splash plays, and its secondary gives up a ton of yards regardless of whether it gets them or not.
Case in point: Daniel Jones threw for a season-high 342 yards in last week's loss.
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Pittsburgh's pass rush should get home without Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, forcing Herbert to throw the ball quickly.
That makes McConkey, operating mainly out of the slot, a prime target:
- McConkey has an 8.6-yard average depth of target (26th percentile among WRs, per RotoWire). He can be a target hog on short-yardage plays.
- As a slot receiver, he will often be covered by Pittsburgh's safeties, which have allowed a 111.1 passer rating against (sixth percentile).
- The Steelers have allowed the most receptions (129) and yards (1,572) to opposing wide receivers this season.
Key stat: McConkey leads all Chargers with 40 targets in the last four weeks. In that span, he is 3-1 against this line.
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SNF game total prediction
Over 44.5 points (-113): This feels like a conservative total given how each team has played lately.
Pittsburgh's defence might be the highest paid in football, but it just isn't getting consistent results. The unit is allowing the third-most yards per game and has given up 30-plus points four times this year.
Los Angeles' defence is also slipping after a strong start to the season.
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The Chargers have allowed 24.4 PPG in their last five games, and that number is dragged down by a 37-10 win over the Minnesota Vikings with Carson Wentz playing severely injured.
Overall, both the Chargers and Steelers have gone over this total in four of their last five games.
Steelers vs. Chargers picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET 11/07/2025.
