One wide receiver and two tight ends make up these NFL Week 10 TD picks.
The pregame narrative: Josh Allen has dominated the Miami Dolphins through the air lately, making Khalil Shakir a strong pick to find the end zone. Elsewhere, back Isiah Likely and George Kittle at healthy plus-money prices.
Check out my top NFL Week 9 TD picks for Sunday, Nov. 9.
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NFL Week 10 TD picks
Best bet: Shakir to score (+200)
The Buffalo Bills straight up own the Dolphins.
- Buffalo has won seven straight games agianst Miami while averaging 32.4 PPG.
- Allen is averaging 274 passing yards with 20 TD passes and a 115.4 passer rating in that span.
- Over his whole career, Allen has 43 passing TDs in 16 games against Miami (2.69 per game).
You could make a solid argument for any of Buffalo's wide receivers or tight ends to score, but I want to focus on Shakir for a few reasons.
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The WR leads Buffalo in red zone targets (nine) and catches (seven). He only has one RZ touchdown on the year, but it did happen to come against the Dolphins in Week 3.
Shakir has 15 targets over his last two weeks, finding the end zone on a 54-yard bomb against the Carolina Panthers.
He can score from anywhere on the field, and Miami's defence is atrocious.
Key stat: The Dolphins are allowing the seventh-most PPG (27.0)
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Bet on these tight ends to score in NFL Week 10
Likely to score (+333): Likely did everything but find the end zone in his first full game with Lamar Jackson last week.
He hauled in three of four targets for 60 yards and led all tight ends with a 59% snap count.
Mark Andrews and Charlie Kolar, Baltimore's other two TEs, both scored as Jackson threw four TDs in his return from injury.
But that doesn't dissuade me from backing Likely against the Minnesota Vikings.
The Vikings' defence has looked pretty suspect following their Week 6 bye. They've allowed 29.6 PPG over three games while ranking 25th in defensive EPA per play, per RBSDM.com.
Minnesota has allowed five touchdowns to TEs this season, tied for the seventh-most in football.
-> Bet on the Likely and Kittle to score on Sunday
Kittle to score (+175): It's looking like Brock Purdy has a real chance at returning this week, which would be a boon for Kittle and the San Francisco 49ers' offence.
But I like Kittle's chances of scoring against the Los Angeles Rams even if it's Mac Jones under centre.
The workhorse tight end is making his third start since returning from a five-week absence. He logged 81%, 90% and 86% of snaps in those games.
Kittle is coming off a career season where he ranked top three in receiving yards (1,106) and touchdowns (eight) among tight ends.
He's a big red zone threat who should command targets against any team, with any QB under centre.
NFL TD picks made at 11:45 a.m. ET on 11/06/2025.
