The Buffalo Bills are heavy favourites on Sunday in a road matchup against the Miami Dolphins.
The pregame narrative: Coming off a massive win over the Kansas City Chiefs, the Bills are laying nine points on the road against the Dolphins. Josh Allen is looking like a justified MVP favourite, and he's grown accustomed to steamrolling the Phins.
Check out my Bills vs. Dolphins SGP predictions on Nov. 9, featuring Allen and De'Von Achane.
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Bills vs. Dolphins predictions
SGP: Bills -6.5 | Allen 2+ passing TDs | Achane 60+ rushing yards (+320)
Bills -6.5 (-182): I like the Bills to cover the standard spread, but let's trim off a few points for added security in this SGP.
- Buffalo has covered this number in each of its past five wins. That includes a 31-21 victory over the Dolphins in Western New York earlier this season.
- The Bills have won seven straight meetings vs. the Dolphins. In their past two matchups in Miami, the Bills covered a -6.5 spread both times.
Last week, Buffalo covered this number against the Super Bowl favourites.
So, no, I don't think it's too much to ask for a cover against the 2-7 Dolphins, who rank outside the top 20 in yards and points on both sides of the ball.
Buffalo's scoring offence and defence both rank inside the top 10.
-> Bet on Josh Allen to win the MVP
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Allen 2+ passing TDs (-186): Josh Allen has been more of a force with his legs than with his arms the past two weeks, but you couldn't ask for a better passing matchup for him on Sunday.
The MVP favourite has truly owned the Dolphins in his career, compiling 40 passing touchdowns and 3,950 yards over 15 games.
That's the production of an MVP-calibre season that's concentrated against one team.
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To put it another way, Allen is averaging 2.7 pass TDs per game against Miami, and he's 14-1 vs. this prop in those matchups.
Miami also happens to have truly dreadful numbers as a pass defence this year, ranking 30th in EPA per dropback and 31st in pass success rate, according to RBSDM.com.
Allen is 5-3 vs. this prop this season and should cash it again in South Florida.
Achane 60+ rushing yards (-150): This game has blowout potential, but even so, Achane should be expected to hit this yardage milestone.
- Miami's top running back is averaging 67.3 YPG and is 6-1 vs. this prop in his past seven.
- Miami has three losses of 10+ points in that span, but Achane hit the 60-yard rushing milestone in each of them.
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In five career matchups vs. the Bills, Achane is averaging 75.6 rushing yards and has cashed this bet four times. He finished with 56 yards on 10 attempts in the outlier.
Buffalo doesn't have a ton of weaknesses, but its run defence is among them. The Bills' run defence ranks 29th in EPA per play and 31st in yards per rush (5.4).
Bills vs. Dolphins predictions made at 1:50 p.m. ET 11/07/2025.
