The 10th NFL Sunday of the season kicks off in Berlin, Germany, where the Indianapolis Colts look to rebound against the suddenly spiralling Atlanta Falcons.
The Week 10 narrative: In the first of a dozen Sunday games, look for Kyle Pitts to do some damage in a plus matchup against the Colts. Later on, the Detroit Lions are hefty favourites on the road against the shorthanded Washington Commanders.
Check out our NFL Week 10 staff best bets for our favourite picks this weekend.
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NFL Week 10 best bets
These NFL Week 10 best bets were provided by NorthStar Bets writers Jordan Horrobin, Chris Toman and Avery Perri.
Panthers -5.5 (-110): Laying points with the Panthers is a rare feat, but it's worth it this week with a truly miserable New Orleans Saints team in town.
The Saints (1-8, 2-7 ATS) have lost by a combined 62 points over the past four weeks. And they've failed to cover a +5.5 spread in seven of nine games.
Rookie quarterback Tyler Shough took the reins for the Saints last week, and the results were ugly. New Orleans posted just 10 points and 224 total yards while turning the ball over twice.
Carolina has a pair of ugly losses against two likely playoff teams (Bills, Patriots). Otherwise, Dave Canales' squad has been a tough out.
The Panthers are 6-3 ATS, which includes an outright win as 13.5-point road underdogs against the Green Bay Packers last week.
-Horrobin
Week 10 ATS prediction
Lions -8 (-110): The Lions will be out for blood after losing straight up as a near-double-digit favourite in Week 9.
Detroit has a big number to cover — something it has been accustomed to — but this matchup has big blowout potential.
The Commanders (3-6 ATS) have been smoked in three straight and are once again without quarterback Jayden Daniels, who suffered a dislocated elbow in Week 9.
Already down playmaker Terry McLaurin, Washington faces an uphill battle. Backup QB Marcus Mariota has led the Commanders to one win in his three starts, and it came against the 2-6 Raiders.
Their defence will be tasked with stopping the No. 1 scoring offence in the NFC.
Washington’s last three games:
- 38-14 loss vs. Seattle
- 28-7 loss @ Kansas City
- 44-22 loss @ Dallas
Detroit has covered this number in all but one of its five wins. The outlier was an impressive eight-point road victory against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.
The Lions followed up their previous losses with a 31-point shellacking and a 15-point victory.
-Toman
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NFL Week 10 moneyline pick
Browns to win (-138): Browns and Jets fans can each stake a claim on being the most hard-done-by fanbase in football.
But right now, New York takes the cake.
The Jets are 1-7 and just traded away their two best defensive players, Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, ahead of Tuesday’s deadline.
One league source described New York’s moves this way to The Athletic's Dianna Russini: “They took a top-five defence and tore it apart.”
Maybe it was prudent for the future, but right now, you couldn't get me to back the Jets in any capacity.
Cleveland largely stood pat at the deadline, and it does have a top five defence by several metrics, including EPA per play and yards allowed per game.
That group, led by Myles Garrett, should keep a banged-up Jets offence at bay.
On the other end, I expect Quinshon Judkins to run wild against New York with Williams out of the door.
-Perri
NFL Week 10 best bets: Player props
Pitts over 46.5 receiving yards (-118): Pitts has been an extremely underwhelming performer through four-plus NFL seasons, but his involvement this year is at least a step in the right direction.
- The 2021 fourth-overall pick is averaging a career-high receptions per game (5.4).
- Pitts is also posting 47.8 yards/game, which is his highest mark since his Pro Bowl rookie season.
-> Bet on Pitts vs. the Colts in Germany!
Pitts has yet to surpass 70 receiving yards this season. But he's also finished above 35 yards in seven of eight games.
This is a floor play, and it comes in one of the best matchups imaginable.
The Indianapolis Colts have allowed 74.9 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, which is the third-most in the NFL.
Pitts runs a healthy majority of his routes from the slot, which is where the Colts' linebackers while likely struggle to stop him.
Indy's linebackers have allowed a 102.2 passer rating, per Rotowire, which ranks in the 23rd percentile.
-Horrobin
NFL Week 10 best bets made at 4:27 p.m. ET on 11/05/2025.
