Drake Maye headlines this week's NFL prop bets, with a pair of targets in the 4 p.m. slate as well.
The pregame narrative: Maye's passing efficiency has been elite this season, and he is well equipped to exceed his yardage line in Week 10. Later on Sunday, Sam LaPorta has a Grade-A matchup in Washington.
Check out my top NFL Week 10 prop bets, featuring a prediction on Arizona Cardinals receiver Michael Wilson.
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NFL Week 10 prop bets
Best bet: Maye over 246.5 passing yards (-118)
The New England Patriots have been one of the surprise successes in the NFL this season. And Maye is easily the biggest reason why.
In his second NFL season, Maye has been an absolute star. He leads the league in completion rate (74.1%) despite also being among the leaders in average depth of target (8.9 yards, 82nd percentile).
-> Bet on Drake Maye's prop markets vs. 49ers
According to RBSDM.com, Maye also ranks in the top five in these advanced metrics:
- Success rate
- EPA per play
- Completion rate above expectation
This yardage line seems pretty low for someone who has been arguably the most efficient quarterback in the NFL, no? He's certainly not the most high-volume passer, but he doesn't have to be.
Maye is averaging 253.9 yards/game, which is pretty comfortably north of his line for Sunday.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a decent defence, but it's primarily geared toward stopping the run. Through eight games, the Bucs' defence ranks third in rush success rate and 20th in pass success rate.
As road underdogs, the Patriots could be put into more passing situations. And the warm Tampa weather shouldn't deter an air attack, either.
Key stat: Maye is 6-3 vs. this prop, cashing in four of his past five starts.
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Best NFL picks
Wilson over 29.5 receiving yards (-118): Wilson is not a big name by any means, but he's worth knowing about in this matchup against the Seattle Seahawks.
Seattle has a stout defence that is particularly tough against the run (No. 1 in yards/attempt). In the passing game, the Seahawks' primary tasks will be to stop Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr.
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I think Wilson can easily sneak in 30+ yards, especially with Jacoby Brissett sticking as Arizona's QB1 for now. Wilson has hit these milestones in each of Brissett's three starts:
- 4+ targets
- 3+ catches
- 40+ yards
Wilson is the clear WR2 for the Cardinals, garnering 76% of Arizona's offensive snaps. He and Brissett seem to have a connection that's worth tapping into.
LaPorta over 46.5 receiving yards (-118): The Detroit Lions lost a shocker at home last week against J.J. McCarthy's Minnesota Vikings, but it wasn't LaPorta's fault.
LaPorta caught six of eight targets for 97 yards and a touchdown — his third score in the past four games.
He's also 3-1 vs. this prop in his past four, and I'm loving the matchup on tap.
The Washington Commanders are allowing the most net yards per pass attempt (7.7), and their linebackers are among the worst coverage groups in the league.
According to Rotowire, Washington's LBs have allowed a 106.9 passer rating, which ranks in the 10th percentile. LaPorta will likely match up against linebackers on most of his routes, so that's worth noting.
In last year's playoff matchup vs. Washington, LaPorta had six catches for 51 yards and a TD.
NFL prop bets made at 2:09 p.m. ET on 11/06/2025.
