The AFC West-leading Denver Broncos kick off Week 10 at home against their divisional basement-dwellers, the Las Vegas Raiders.
The pregame narrative: Denver won in Houston last week to extend its streak to six games. Las Vegas, meanwhile, is 1-6 in its past seven games. On the bright side for the Raiders, their offence showed some life with Brock Bowers back in the mix.
Check out my Raiders vs. Broncos picks for Nov. 4, featuring a prop bet on Denver wideout Courtland Sutton.
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Raiders vs. Broncos picks
Best Bet: Raiders over 16.5 points (-107)
The Raiders' 29th-ranked scoring offence is averaging just 16.5 points per game. Given that they're playing on the road against the Broncos (No. 4 scoring defence), this might seem like a great time for a fade.
That's not how I see it, though, because the Raiders have been far more competent on offence when Brock Bowers is healthy.
A year after setting the NFL rookie record for catches (and the rookie tight end record for receiving yards), Bowers is the obvious focal point of Las Vegas' offence.
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I'm not here to say that it's a great offence, but in the games that Bowers has been healthy, things have largely been fine:
- at Patriots: 20 points, 389 total yards
- vs. Chargers: 9 points, 218 total yards
- at Commanders: 24 points, 354 total yards
- vs. Bears: 24 points, 357 total yards
- vs. Jaguars: 29 points, 331 total yards
In three games without Bowers, the Raiders have averaged 8.7 PPG and 205.7 yards.
With Bowers, the Raiders have averaged 21.2 PPG and 329.8 yards. If you think he's a true game-changer, as I do, this is a point total worth buying in on.
Also, Denver won't have Patrick Surtain, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. That should give Bowers and the rest of the Raiders' pass offence a better opportunity to thrive.
Key stat: The Broncos are allowing 18.4 PPG, and five of nine opponents have surpassed a 16.5-point total. The exceptions include the Titans (Cam Ward's NFL debut), Bengals (without Joe Burrow), and Texans (with C.J. Stroud sidelined for most of the game).
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TNF prop prediction
Sutton over 52.5 receiving yards (-114): Sutton has had some frustratingly quiet weeks this season, but this is a disrespectfully low line for a guy Bo Nix has built a solid connection with.
- In 26 regular-season games with Nix, Sutton is averaging 63.3 yards/game.
- Sutton is 17-9 vs. this yardage total in those matchups.
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Troy Franklin just overtook Sutton as the Broncos' target leader, but not all targets are created equally.
Sutton consistently has opportunities to do more with less, evidenced by his 688 air yards this season (11th in the NFL, per Player Profiler).
In home games this season, Sutton is 4-0 vs. this prop while averaging 74.0 YPG.
Raiders vs. Broncos picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET 11/04/2025.
