The first set of College Football Playoff rankings came out this week, which is a reminder that we're approaching crunch time for the season.
The pregame narrative: In the Big Ten, the matchup of the week pits the Oregon Ducks against the Iowa Hawkeyes in one of college football's most special venues. Elsewhere, the San Diego State Aztecs look to keep their CFP hopes alive in Hawaii.
Check out the best college football Week 11 picks, featuring a prediction for the Florida State Seminoles vs. Clemson Tigers matchup.
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College football picks Week 11
Best bet: Iowa +6.5 (-110)
Kinnick Stadium will be rocking Saturday as it hosts a playoff-calibre opponent for the second time this season.
In late September, the Indiana Hoosiers (now No. 2 in the country) came to Iowa City as 9-point favourites. Indiana clawed out an ugly, hard-fought win, 20-15.
No. 20 Iowa held Heisman Trophy contender Fernando Mendoza to a season-low 56.5% completion rate in that game. On the ground, the Hoosiers had a season-low 2.7 yards/rush.
Up next at Kinnick is No. 9 Oregon, a team that lost to the Hoosiers, 30-20, two weeks after their matchup against the Hawkeyes.
-> Bet on No. 20 Iowa to cover vs. No. 9 Oregon
Iowa's path to a win (or at least a cover) involves long, grind-it-out possessions in the run game and stifling defence. Quarterback Mark Gronowski, who has at least one rushing TD in every game, is the X-factor.
Given that Oregon's defence is better equipped to defend the pass, that formula makes sense. The Ducks' defence ranks No. 1 in EPA per pass, according to Game On Paper.
Iowa is a home underdog for just the third time since the start of the 2021 season and has covered a +6.5 spread in every game this year. Oregon, meanwhile, is 2-3-1 ATS in its past six games
Key stat: The Hawkeyes are 10-7-2 ATS at home since the start of the 2023 season.
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Florida State +3 (-143): This ACC matchup would've been circled on the calendar in red pen before the season started. But now the stakes are pride and a path to bowl eligibility rather than CFP considerations.
It's easy to paint an ugly picture for both teams' seasons. But I think Clemson comes off as the uglier of the two.
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The Tigers are 1-4 straight up at home despite being favoured by more than a field goal each time. Keep in mind that Clemson went 29-4 at home over the previous five seasons.
In an attempt at positive spin on Florida State's 4-4 season, I'll say this:
- All four losses came by one score.
- Three of FSU's losses came against currently ranked schools.
Oh, and the Seminoles did hand No. 4 Alabama its only loss of the season. That was more than two months ago, but it's still a far greater accomplishment than anything Clemson has to its name.
Florida State also has the best playmakers in this matchup. Quarterback Thomas Castellanos leads the nation in yards per attempt (10.3), and receiver Micahi Danzy leads the ACC in yards per reception (24.0).
San Diego State -7 (-106): Could a one-loss San Diego State make the CFP? If the team keeps rolling like it is right now, I think so.
Since suffering a blowout loss at Washington State in Week 2, the Aztecs have ripped off six straight wins by a combined 132 points. They're 6-0 ATS in that span and have covered this number five times.
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Hawaii is a dangerous squad that has three upset wins in its past four games. But I don't view these teams on a level playing field.
- SDSU ranks eighth in NCAA Division I in EPA per play; Hawaii ranks 85th.
- Their two common opponents are Fresno State and Colorado State. The Aztecs went 2-0 with a +44 point differential in those games, while Hawaii went 1-1 with a +10 point differential.
College football picks made at 10:50 a.m. on 11/06/2025.
