One of the NFL's most storied rivalries is renewed on Saturday night of wild-card weekend, when the Green Bay Packers face the Chicago Bears.
The pregame narrative: These NFC North foes have a shockingly limited playoff history, but they do square off twice per year in the regular season. They both won at home this season, and now they're essentially in a pick'em for Act III.
Check out my Packers vs. Bears picks, featuring predictions on Caleb Williams and Christian Watson in a +330 SGP.
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Packers vs. Bears picks
SGP: Williams 200+ pass yards | Watson 50+ rec. yards | Bears +4.5 (+330)
Williams 200+ pass yards (-134): Under-qualified ball-knowers might think Williams will struggle in cold conditions since he played his college ball at USC. But that's a half-baked theory.
Yes, Williams played collegiately in the Golden State, but he grew up in DC and knows a thing or two about frigid football conditions. I don't think he'll be fazed at all by Saturday night's sub-zero temps.
In fact, I think he'll feel right at home.
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And Williams, as it turns out, has performed exceptionally well at Soldier Field this season (eight games):
- 15 TDs
- 2 INTs
- 97.6 passer rating
- 200+ yards in seven of eight
When he faced Green Bay at home on Dec. 20, Williams threw for 250 yards and two touchdowns in a comeback victory.
Williams is 13-4 vs. this yardage milestone this season, and with Rome Odunze expected back after a five-week absence, I expect he'll do it again.
Packers vs. Bears prop prediction
Watson 50+ receiving yards (-157): The fourth-year wideout didn't make his season debut until Week 8, but he proceeded to lead the team in yards per catch (17.5) and yards per game (61.1). He also tied for the team lead in receiving TDs (six).
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Watson was held in check when he last faced the Bears, turning six targets into just two catches for 17 yards. In fairness, things got weird for the Packers' air attack as Jordan Love exited mid-game with a concussion.
In Week 14 against the Bears, with a healthy Love at the helm, Watson caught all four of his targets for 89 yards and two scores.
Watson has 45+ yards in eight of 10 games this year, and Green Bay should be counting on him big time in this wild-card matchup.
SGP prediction: NFL ATS pick
Bears +4.5 (-205): I don't have Super Bowl expectations for either of these teams, and I don't have a particularly strong lean on who will win. But I do like the idea of banking more than a field goal with the home team.
- Chicago (11-6-0 ATS) and Green Bay (6-10-1 ATS) are on opposite ends of the against-the-spread spectrum.
- The Bears have covered a +4.5 spread in all eight of their home games, and they're 6-2 SU at Soldier Field.
Green Bay's defence lost Devonte Wyatt and Micah Parsons to season-ending injuries in Weeks 13 and 15, respectively. Those losses are making a substantial difference.
From Weeks 13-18, Green Bay's defence ranked 28th in EPA per play and 29th in success rate, per RBSDM.com.
Chicago should be able to move the ball and at least keep up on Saturday.
Packers vs. Bears picks made at 2:15 p.m. on Jan. 8, 2025.
