Collin Gillespie has been on a shooting spree lately for the Phoenix Suns, and he's one of my top targets for Friday's NBA prop market.
Tonight's NBA props narrative: Another late-night performer I'm eyeing is Deni Avdija, who's coming off his best scoring output of the season. Avdija will face the Houston Rockets for the second time in three nights.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 9, featuring a prediction on Jalen Williams.
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NBA prop picks Jan. 9
Best bet: Avdija over 26.5 points (-109)
Avdija just torched the Rockets at home two nights ago, dropping a season-high 41 points on 13-of-24 shooting. He also sank 13 of his 15 free throws.
After the game, Houston's Tari Eason was asked what made Avdija so tough to defend. His pointed, one-word answer: "Zebras."
Aside from Luka Doncic, no one has attempted more free throws on a per-game basis this year than Avdija (9.9), and he gets a particularly favourable whistle at Moda Center.
- Home: 11.0 FTA, 28.1 PPG
- Road: 9.0 FTA, 24.7 PPG
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Avdija and the Blazers host the Rockets again tonight. It's a tough matchup, but he did just pass it with flying colours on Wednesday.
Over his past 20 games, Avdija has really leaned in on drawing fouls. In that span, he's up to 11.8 free throws per game, which has contributed to a 27.5 PPG scoring average.
Jrue Holiday's injury thrust Avdija into the main facilitating role for Portland, but he's still the top scorer, too.
Avdija knows how to get to the bucket — or at least to the free throw line — and I expect him to attack Houston again tonight.
Key stat: Avdija has 19+ field goal attempts and 10+ free throw attempts in all four games this month. He's 4-0 vs. this points prop in those matchups.
Best NBA picks
Gillespie over 2.5 threes (-136): Gillespie had a one-year crossover with the Nova Knicks in college, and I like his chances of going toe-to-toe with them tonight.
The third-year point guard out of Villanova has been exceptional from deep this season, shooting 41.9% on 7.0 attempts.
He only averaged 2.7 attempted 3s last year, but the huge jump in volume didn't affect his efficiency.
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Gillespie is 7-2 vs. this prop in his past nine games, connecting for 3.6 threes per night. There's some extra juice with this one, but it's well worth it based on how he's shooting right now.
Overall, Gillespie is 22-15 vs. this prop.
NBA player prop predictions
Williams under 6.5 assists (+102): The Oklahoma City Thunder are on a bumpy road right now, going 7-6 in their past 13 games. The defending champs just needed overtime to beat the Utah Jazz ... at home.
If you're looking to fade OKC, this is my favourite way to do it tonight. Williams sits at 5.5 APG on the season and has gone under this prop line in 12 of 19 games.
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That includes a two-assist effort against the Memphis Grizzlies, who he'll face tonight.
Williams is averaging just 8.8 potential assists per game, which denotes all passes that lead directly to a shot. That's not enough opportunities for me to want the over here.
NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Jan. 9, 2026.
