In an all-Big Ten rematch, the No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers face the No. 5 Oregon Ducks on Friday night for a spot in the College Football Playoff national championship.
The pregame narrative: The Hoosiers beat the Ducks by two scores in Oregon earlier this season, so it's no surprise to see Indiana favoured again in the Peach Bowl's neutral environment. Indiana has only allowed 23 total points over its past four games.
Check out my NCAAF Oregon vs. Indiana predictions in this +450 same-game parlay, featuring Kaelon Black and Malik Benson.
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Oregon vs. Indiana predictions
Parlay: Black anytime TD | Indiana -2.5 | Benson over 39.5 rec. yards (+450)
Black to score (+115): Indiana has a true timeshare in its backfield with super-seniors Black and Roman Hemby. I think there's room for both backs to score on Friday, but I'm particularly bullish on Black.
- Although Black and Hemby are about the same size, Black sees the bulk of the goal-line work.
- Black has scored five TDs in his past six games, and two of those scores came from the one-yard line.
As mentioned, there should be room for both RBs to shine if things go the way Indiana hopes. Last round, Black and Hemby both rushed at least 15 times for at least 85 yards and a score against Alabama.
Oregon's defence has been lethal against the pass and somewhat gettable against the run. The Ducks' defence ranks ninth in pass success rate and 63rd in run success rate, per Game On Paper.
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Indiana's Fernando Mendoza has thrown an NCAA Division I-high 36 TD passes this year, but it might be wise for the Hoosiers to turn to Black to punch it in near the goal line.
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College Football Playoff picks
Indiana -2.5 (-157): Any team that reaches the CFP semifinal is strong, obviously, but Indiana is a cut above.
The Hoosiers are 14-0 and have won their games by an average of 31.4 points. They've covered a -2.5 spread in every matchup.
And yes, Indiana had some cupcakes on its schedule this year — even during conference season — but the team also put away some big-time opponents, too.
Just last week, the Hoosiers dismantled Alabama, 38-3, in the Rose Bowl. And in the Big Ten championship game, they held Ohio State's high-octane offence to just 10 points.
-> Bet on Indiana to beat Oregon in the Peach Bowl
Most importantly, though, was Indiana's 30-20 win over Oregon on the road in October.
Indiana was a 7-point underdog in that one, but the visiting squad collected six sacks and out-gained the Ducks both through the air and on the ground.
On a neutral field, expect Indiana to come out on top once again.
Ducks vs. Hoosiers Peach Bowl predictions
Benson over 39.5 receiving yards (-177): Indiana allows the third-fewest rush yards per game, and I expect the Hoosiers to play from ahead. That should force the Ducks to air it out a bit.
If that happens, Benson looks like a smash to clear this yardage total.
He only caught one of four targets when Oregon faced Indiana in the fall, but he turned that into a 44-yard TD. And now, his production is peaking at the right time.
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- Benson is 5-0 vs. this yardage prop in his past five games.
- In that five-game span, he's averaging 79.0 yards on 3.7 receptions.
- Benson also has five or more targets in five of his past six games.
Oregon vs. Indiana predictions made at 11:10 a.m. ET on Jan. 8, 2025.
