Navy Midshipmen quarterback Blake Horvath is one of NCAA Division I's most high-volume ball-carriers, and he's the subject of my top college football prop bet this week.
The latest: Horvath and his fellow servicemen are on the road to face No. 10 Notre Dame, but that tough matchup won't deter me. Elsewhere on Saturday night, LSU Tigers receiver Aaron Anderson should be involved enough to clear a modest receiving yards prop.
Check out my favourite college football Week 11 prop picks, featuring a prediction on Florida State Seminoles WR Duce Robinson.
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College football Week 11 prop picks
Best bet: Horvath anytime TD (+112)
Regardless of game script, Navy quarterback Blake Horvath should be expected to run early and often on Saturday night. I'd guess this is the only time this season that he'll have plus-money odds to score.
Look at where he ranks among all NCAA Division I ball-carriers:
- 2nd in rushing TDs (13)
- 5th in rushing yards (926)
- 18th in yards per rush (6.7)
- 22nd in rush attempts (138)
Horvath only rushed twice in Navy's season opener, which was a blowout win over Virginia Military Institute (FCS). Since then, he has had 17+ carries each week.
Oh, and Horvath has scored in seven consecutive games from Week 2 onward, too.
-> Bet on Navy vs. No. 10 Notre Dame on Saturday!
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are 27.5-point home favourites on Saturday night, and their run defence has been stout this year. They've allowed just six rushing TDs and 2.8 yards/carry through eight games.
Horvath is the lifeblood of the Midshipmen attack, though, so if someone is going to break through I expect it'll be him.
And again, Navy's commitment to the run game is ironclad. Horvath has 138 rush attempts and only 68 pass attempts this year.
Key stat: In Navy's matchup vs. Notre Dame last season, Horvath ran for 129 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries.
CFB prop bets
Anderson over 35.5 receiving yards (-120): After a few bumpy weeks, Anderson got back to business last time out with some solid production against No. 3 Texas A&M.
-> Check out Week 11 NCAAF prop markets at NorthStar Bets
Anderson, who'd had only three catches over his two previous games — as well as a one-game absence due to injury — caught five of nine targets for 59 yards vs. the Aggies.
The junior wideout still hasn't found the end zone, but he's averaging 54.6 receiving yards/game and is 5-2 vs. this yardage prop.
Anderson's LSU Tigers are 10-point road underdogs against the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide. He's the top receiving weapon in this offence, as he was a year ago, and that makes this an extremely attainable line to clear.
Robinson over 69.5 receiving yards (-120): Robinson is a big-play receiver who catches passes from a big-play quarterback.
It's working out pretty well for the tandem, even if Florida State's season as a whole has been a mess.
Check out Robinson's production over his past five games:
- 98.0 yards/game
- 85+ yards in four of five
- 8+ targets in four of five
- 18.8 yards/reception
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The USC transfer has averaged 19.7 yards per catch in his career. Pair that with his recent target volume, and it's easy to see some value here.
Florida State quarterback Thomas Castellanos leads the nation in yards per attempt (10.3) and per completion (16.8). He's constantly looking downfield, and Robinson is often the guy on the receiving end.
The Clemson Tigers rank 56th in defensive EPA per pass, which is nothing special. Coming off a 148-yard game, look for Robinson to feast.
College football prop picks made at 11:40 a.m. on 11/07/2025.
