NFL wild-card weekend wraps up with a special edition of Monday Night Football, featuring the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Houston Texans.
The pregame narrative: Pittsburgh snuck into the playoffs with a Week 18 win and will now serve as a home underdog vs. Houston. C.J. Stroud is 0-2 in road playoff games and has markedly worse numbers in outdoor conditions.
Check out my Texans vs. Steelers wild-card picks for Jan. 12, featuring prop bets on Stroud and Kenneth Gainwell.
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Texans vs. Steelers wild-card picks
Best Bet: Stroud under 222.5 passing yards (-113)
This could be my last chance this season to bet against Stroud in an outdoor road game. I don't want to miss out.
Stroud, the No. 2 overall pick in 2023, has now logged three full NFL seasons. His home/road splits are a sight to behold:
- Home (23 games): 258.9 pass yards/game, 101.2 passer rating, 37 TDs, 11 INTs
- Road (23 games): 214.0 pass yards/game, 85.5 passer rating, 25 TDs, 14 INTs
And let's not forget about his splits when playing under a retractable roof compared to a standard outdoor venue:
- Retractable roof (28 games): 258.4 pass yards/game, 100.3 passer rating, 42 TDs, 13 INTs
- Outdoors (15 games): 199.6 pass yards/game, 83.9 passer rating, 17 TDs, 7 INTs
-> Fade Stroud in Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football
With a total set at just 38 points, Monday's matchup between the Texans and Steelers is expected to be a defence-first rock fight.
Houston's defence is arguably the best in the NFL, so it's unlikely that Stroud will need to put up huge numbers to keep his squad in the fight. The weather in Pittsburgh is expected to be a bit windy with temperatures below freezing.
It won't be treacherous at Acrisure Stadium, but Stroud has proven many times over that he's not as comfortable in outdoor road venues.
The Steelers' pass defence was at its best over the latter half of the season and should show up in this wild-card battle.
Key stat: From Week 9 onward, the Steelers allowed just 213.3 net passing yards per game.
MNF prop prediction
Gainwell over 31.5 receiving yards (-117): There were 10 NFLers with 12.0 or more sacks this season, and two of them are on the Texans' defensive front.
That's a terrifying fact for the largely immobile Aaron Rodgers, who I'm sure wants to avoid a face-to-face meeting with Danielle Hunter or Will Anderson at all costs.
With DK Metcalf back in the mix after a two-game suspension, Pittsburgh's offence has a true field-stretcher to keep Houston's ferocious defence honest. That should open things up underneath for Gainwell, who's been feasting in recent weeks.
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Over his past eight games, Gainwell is averaging 45.4 yards on 5.5 catches per game. He has 25+ yards in all but one of those matchups.
The Texans' defence ranks No. 1 in total yards allowed and No. 4 in net pass yards per attempt. I think we'll see a lot of Rodgers-to-Gainwell checkdowns, which have become the norm in Pittsburgh.
Texans vs. Steelers wild-card prop picks made at 12:10 p.m. ET Jan. 11, 2026.
