The NFL wild-card round concludes in Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football, with the Steelers looking for their first playoff win in a decade.
The pregame narrative: Aaron Rodgers led the Steelers to a 4-1 record down the stretch to keep the season (and potentially his career) alive. Now, Pittsburgh is a slight home underdog against a Houston Texans team that has won 10 straight games heading into the postseason.
Check out my Texans vs. Steelers picks, featuring predictions on Rodgers and T.J. Watt.
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Texans vs. Steelers picks
SGP: Steelers moneyline | Rodgers 175+ passing yards | Watt to record a sack (+425)
Steelers moneyline (+140): Backing Houston might seem like a no-brainer. The Texans own the league's top scoring defence and haven't lost since Nov. 2.
But I love Pittsburgh as a home underdog.
The Steelers' defence is humming right now, holding opponents to 19.6 PPG in their last five. In that span, they beat the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens (twice).
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That unit should wreak havoc against C.J. Stroud, who has very suspect road splits:
- The Texans went 1-3 against playoff teams on the road this year. Stroud had four TDs and six INTs in those games.
- Stroud's career road splits (214 passing yards/game, 85.5 passer rating) are much worse than his home splits (258.9 passing yards/game, 101.2 passer rating).
I fully trust Rodgers to out-duel his counterpart with DK Metcalf back in the fold.
Texans vs. Steelers prop prediction
Rodgers 175+ passing yards (-230): Only two players, Cam Heyward and Chris Bowell, remain from Pittsburgh's 2016 roster when it toppled the Kansas City Chiefs to reach the AFC Championship game.
This squad isn't flush with playoff-winning pedigree, save for Rodgers, who secured a Super Bowl title with the Green Bay Packers in 2011, coincidentally, against the Steelers.
I say the veteran does his part to get Pittsburgh into the divisional round.
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Rodgers went 11-5 against this milestone, throwing for at least 224 yards in all four of Pittsburgh's wins down the stretch. He went under it against the Cleveland Browns, but was missing Metcalf.
Houston's defence is fierce, and the Steelers will need to implement a balanced attack to move the ball.
Veterans like Marquez-Valdez Scantling and Adam Theilin have gotten reps down the stretch, and it feels like Pittsburgh's offence is peaking at the right time.
SGP prediction: T.J. Watt pick
Watt to record a sack (+106): Watt didn't record a sack in the final three games of the season, and had just seven on the year.
The 31-year-old is no longer a mainstay in Defensive Player of the Year conversations, but he's no pushover and should feast in this matchup.
After all, Houston's offensive line is its achillies heel.
- According to ESPN, the Texans are 30th in pass-block win rate (56%) and 32nd in run-block win rate (68%).
- PFF had the offensive line ranked as the No. 27 unit following Week 18.
-> Bet on Watt to record a sack on MNF
Texans vs. Steelers picks made at 11:30 a.m. on Jan. 10, 2025.
