There are two more stops on the road to the 2026 College Football Playoff national championship, with the Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowl due up on Thursday and Friday.
The pregame narrative: In Phoenix, the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes look to impose their defensive will on the No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels in a true clash of styles. One night later, Atlanta hosts the top-seeded Indiana Hoosiers in a Big Ten rematch against the Oregon Ducks.
Check out my college football best bets for the Jan. 8-9 playoff games, featuring NCAAF prop picks and predictions on Noah Whittington and Kewan Lacy.
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College football best bets: CFP semifinals
Editor's note: The prop prediction on Noah Whittington was logged before the news that Oregon RB Jordon Davison (clavicle) was ruled out for the Peach Bowl.
Best bet: Whittington under 45.5 rushing yards (-121)
At the time of this writing, Whittington's yardage line is higher than the line for his backfield mate, Jordon Davison. That doesn't make any sense to me, given how they've been deployed in the CFP.
- Through two playoff games, Whittington has just 55 rushing yards on 17 carries (3.2 yards/rush) with zero touchdowns.
- Davison, on the other hand, has 132 yards on 25 carries (5.3 yards/rush) with two TDs.
Whittington is in his fourth year at Oregon and his sixth collegiate season overall. He was the lead back for the Ducks most of the way, but now the true freshman Davison is flashing more promise.
-> Go to full Oregon vs. Indiana Peach Bowl markets
And when the Ducks hosted the Hoosiers earlier this season, Davison was a rare bright spot for Oregon's offence. He turned eight carries into 59 yards, while Whittington had just five carries for 27 yards.
Indiana has a stout run defence, and if anyone is going to get the opportunity to break through, I expect it'll be Davison. Fade Whittington amid his apparent demotion.
Key stat: Indiana has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game this season (76.4).
NCAAF Fiesta Bowl prediction
Miami/Ole Miss under 51.5 points (-109): If you watched the high-octane shootout between Ole Miss and Georgia last week, betting this under might feel ridiculous. But Miami will pose a much different matchup for the Rebels.
Here's where the Hurricanes rank in some key defensive metrics:
- 3rd in sacks per game (3.4)
- 4th in points per game (13.8)
- 7th in yards per play (4.4)
Miami has gone under this point total in 13 of its 14 games this season. The edge rusher combo of Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor will keep the dynamic Trinidad Chambliss on his toes.
-> Bet now on No. 10 Miami vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
Unders are 4-2 in Ole Miss's past six games, and its defence should be able to make some plays in this game. The Rebs' issue is stopping the run, and that's not typically where the Hurricanes thrive.
Miami's offence ranks fifth in pass play success rate, according to Game On Paper. Ole Miss ranks 12th in pass play success rate on the defensive side.
College Football Playoff prop picks
Lacy over 84.5 rushing yards (-118): Though I don't expect a massive point total in the Fiesta Bowl, I do like Lacy's chances of clearing this yardage total. He's a workhorse back that Ole Miss loves to lean on.
Look at his statistical output over the past seven games:
- 22.4 carries/game
- 120.9 yards/game
- 5.4 yards/rush
- 13 TDs
In that span, Lacy went under 22 carries just twice: a 49-0 blowout win over The Citadel (FCS) and when he injured his shoulder during Mississippi's first-round playoff game.
Still, Lacy has cashed this bet in four straight games and should be in line to extend that streak.
To prevent Miami from pinning its ears back and hunting Chambliss down after down, the Rebels will need to establish the run. Lacy is a talented tailback who has earned the opportunity to do that.
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Peach Bowl picks and predictions
Indiana -4 (-117): In a year with pretty solid parity in college football, the Hoosiers are clearly the best and most complete team.
I'm not going to say this number is disrespectful, but I didn't blink before jumping on it.
- Indiana just won the Rose Bowl by 35 points over Alabama, handing the storied Crimson Tide their worst loss of the century (not an exaggeration).
- The Hoosiers are now 14-0 SU and 9-5 ATS on the year, winning by an average of 31.4 points per game.
- They've covered a -4 spread in all but two of those matchups.
Oregon did just dismantle Texas Tech, 23-0. But the Red Raiders were playing with an injured Behren Morton at quarterback, which completely changed the dynamic of what their offence was capable of.
More importantly, Indiana went into Oregon earlier this season and won, 30-20, as 7-point underdogs. They sacked Dante Moore six times and out-gained the Ducks on the ground and through the air.
We're a long way from viewing Indiana as a Cinderella squad. Curt Cignetti's team is the one to beat.
College football best bets made at 2:40 p.m. on Jan. 5, 2026.
