The playoff picture is becoming clearer as the NFL enters its penultimate week of the season.
The Week 17 narrative: Divisions can be clinched across the NFL this weekend, with the Baltimore Ravens and Green Bay Packers matchup guaranteed to crown a winner (ironically, for a team not playing). The biggest match comes from Orchard Park, where the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles battle.
Check out our staff's NFL Week 17 ATS picks for predictions on every game.
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NFL Week 17 ATS picks
NorthStar Bets' Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin, Spencer Closs, Chris Toman and Steven Psihogios offer up their NFL Week 17 ATS picks for all 16 games.
NFL odds as of 1 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025.
Christmas Day picks
Cowboys vs. Commanders (Thursday, Dec. 25: 1:00 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Dallas -8
Perri says: Neither team has anything to play for on Christmas but pride, and I think Dallas can deliver a big win in front of its home fans. The Cowboys' offence remains elite behind Dak Prescott, while the Commanders are down to their third-string QB. It also looks like standout defensive tackle Quinnen Williams will return for Dallas, giving that side of the ball a much-needed shot in the arm.
Staff picks: Perri (DAL) | Horrobin () | Closs (DAL) | Toman () | Psihogios (DAL)
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Lions vs. Vikings (Thursday, Dec. 25: 4:30 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Detroit -7.5
Perri says: J.J. McCarthy is out for the Vikings, meaning Max Brosmer is tasked to keep pace with the Lions' offence. Good luck. Detroit is averaging 32.0 PPG in its last five games and needs a win to stay alive in the playoffs. Brosmer threw four interceptions in his lone NFL start and has a 14.5 QBR this season.
Staff picks: Perri (DET) | Horrobin () | Closs (DET) | Toman () | Psihogios (DET)
Broncos vs. Chiefs (Thursday, Dec. 25: 8:15 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Denver -13
Perri says: Three Christmas Day games, three QB mismatches. Third-string Chiefs QB Chris Oladokun takes on Bo Nix and the top-seeded Broncos. This time, I'll side with the Chiefs. Denver has only won one game this season by more than 13 points, and it came way back in Week 4 against Cincinnati. I think Andy Reid and his team would love to play spoiler and crush the Broncos' 1-seed hopes.
Staff picks: Perri (KC) | Horrobin () | Closs (DEN) | Toman () | Psihogios (DEN)
NFL ATS picks: The Saturday slate
Texans vs. Chargers (Saturday, Dec. 27: 4:30 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Los Angeles -2
Closs says: Two of the best defences collide to kick off the doubleheader on Saturday. However, I like the Chargers' offence more. L.A. ranks in the top 10 for yards per game and converts third-downs at a 47.2% rate. Houston ranks in the bottom half for both those stats. Plus, the Chargers are at home, where they are 6-2-0 this season.
Staff picks: Perri (HOU) | Horrobin () | Closs (LAC) | Toman () | Psihogios (HOU)
Ravens vs. Packers (Saturday, Dec. 27: 8:15 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Green Bay -3
Closs says: Both starting quarterbacks are questionable ahead of this game, so I'll side with the far superior defence. Green Bay allows the sixth-fewest yards (315.1), leading to the eighth-fewest points per game (20.1). The Packers have lost consecutive games, but both were played on the road. They return to Lambeau Field for this matchup, where they are 5-2-0.
Staff picks: Perri (BAL) | Horrobin () | Closs (GB) | Toman () | Psihogios (BAL)
NFL ATS picks: The early Sunday slate
Cardinals vs. Bengals (Sunday, Dec. 28: 1:00 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Cincinnati -7
Perri says: Burrow and the Bengals put on a light show against the Dolphins last week, scoring 45 points in a blowout victory. Cincinnati hasn't quit on the season despite its record, and I can't say the same about Arizona. The Cardinals have lost seven straight games, failing to score 25 points in any of those contests, and have been outscored by 55 points in their last three.
Staff picks: Perri (CIN) | Horrobin () | Closs (CIN) | Toman () | Psihogios (ARI)
Jaguars vs. Colts (Sunday, Dec. 28: 1:00 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Jacksonville -6.5
Closs says: The Colts have lost five straight games, and it's surprisingly not because of Philip Rivers taking over at quarterback. The defence is just downright awful. It got torched for 48 points by the 49ers last week. Jacksonville is on a six-game heater, scoring 25+ in every win and 34+ four times. One of those wins was also against the Colts. There's no reason the Jaguars shouldn't repeat that performance.
Staff picks: Perri (JAX) | Horrobin () | Closs (JAX) | Toman () | Psihogios (IND)
Patriots vs. Jets (Sunday, Dec. 28: 1:00 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: New England -13.5
Closs says: The Jets have fully given up on this season. They are on a three-game skid, losing each game by more than 20 points. That won't fly against the 12-3-0 Patriots, who have won 11 of the last 12 games. They are also perfect on the road with a very impressive 7-0-0 record, so home-field advantage means very little in this matchup.
Staff picks: Perri (NE) | Horrobin () | Closs (NE) | Toman () | Psihogios (NYJ)
Saints vs. Titans (Sunday, Dec. 28: 1:00 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: New Orleans -2.5
Perri says: I want what Tyler Shough and Kellen Moore are selling. The rookie quarterback-and-coach tandem has ripped off three straight wins and is 4-2 in its last six. Shough threw for a season-high 308 yards last week and now faces the seventh-worst scoring defence. The Titans are also heating up, but don't have the personnel to match the Saints on offence.
Staff picks: Perri (NO) | Horrobin () | Closs (TEN) | Toman () | Psihogios (NO)
Steelers vs. Browns (Sunday, Dec. 28: 1:00 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Pittsburgh -3
Perri says: Backing the Steelers as a divisional road favourite seems scary, but Aaron Rodgers and Co. are playing great ball right now. Pittsburgh has won three straight while averaging 28.0 PPG. Derrick Harmon returned to the squad's D-line last week to help hold the Lions to just 15 rushing yards. The Steelers are allowing just 87.9 rushing yards per game with Harmon in the lineup (10 games).
Staff picks: Perri (PIT) | Horrobin () | Closs (PIT) | Toman () | Psihogios (CLE)
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Seahawks vs. Panthers (Sunday, Dec. 28: 1:00 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Seattle -7
Perri says: The stats say Carolina has a league-best seven wins as an underdog (8-4 ATS). But my eyes tell me Seattle is a much better team, with a substantial rest advantage. The Seahawks just won the game of the year to keep their five-game winning streak alive. Bryce Young should have trouble putting up points against this defence.
Staff picks: Perri (SEA) | Horrobin () | Closs (SEA) | Toman () | Psihogios (CAR)
Buccaneers vs. Dolphins (Sunday, Dec. 28: 1:00 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Tampa Bay -5.5
TKTK says: I expect this to be a shootout, and Baker Mayfield trumps Quinn Ewers as a quarterback. Mayfield has 23 TDs to eight INTs this season, while Ewers has yet to throw a TD with two interceptions. Tua Tagovailoa started most of the season for Miami, so his rookie replacement is still adjusting to the NFL, and I expect the Buccaneers to take advantage.
Staff picks: Perri (MIA) | Horrobin () | Closs (TB) | Toman () | Psihogios (MIA)
NFL 4 p.m. slate
Giants vs. Raiders (Sunday, Dec. 28: 4:05 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: New York -0.5
Perri says: Both teams are awful and will want to lose this game for draft capital (at least the general managers and fans will). But Jaxson Dart at least keeps the Giants close in games, and the same can't be said for Geno Smith, who is now without his best offensive player, Brock Bowers.
Staff picks: Perri (NYG) | Horrobin () | Closs (LV) | Toman () | Psihogios (NYG)
Eagles vs. Bills (Sunday, Dec. 28: 4:25 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Buffalo -1
Perri says: This will be the last litmus test for Philadelphia before it looks to enter the playoffs and defend its title. With Lane Johnson and Jalen Carter expected to return, I think the Eagles will pick up a statement win before resting their starters in Week 18. Philly has won two straight and is allowing just 14.8 PPG since its Week 9 bye.
Staff picks: Perri (PHI) | Horrobin () | Closs (BUF) | Toman () | Psihogios (BUF)
Sunday and Monday Night NFL Week 17 ATS picks
Bears vs. 49ers (Sunday, Dec. 28: 8:20 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: San Francisco -3
Closs says: San Fran's offence has been absolutely cooking down the stretch. They have won five straight games, averaging 34.4 points. Chicago's no joke, leading the NFC North, but its defence is below-average in almost every category. That is a recipe for disaster heading into an away game with the 49ers.
Staff picks: Perri (SF) | Horrobin () | Closs (SF) | Toman () | Psihogios (SF)
Rams vs. Falcons (Monday, Dec. 29: 8:15 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Los Angeles -8
Closs says: The Rams' offence is on fire behind a trio of superstar performances from Puka Nacua. The wide receiver has had 165+ receiving yards in three straight games, including 225 yards last week against the Seahawks. They ultimately got outgunned by Seattle, but that's much less of a possibility against Kirk Cousins and the Falcons. When Atlanta played Seattle in Week 14, it got smoked at home, 37-9.
Staff picks: Perri (ATL) | Horrobin () | Closs (LAR) | Toman () | Psihogios (ATL)
NFL ATS picks: Week 16 + season records
- Toman: 9-6-1 (116-116-8)
- Psihogios: 7-8-1 (113-119-8)
- Closs: 6-9-1 (112-120-8)
- Perri: 11-4-1 (110-122-8)
- Horrobin: 11-4-1 (109-123-8)
