The Los Angeles Lakers host the Houston Rockets for a Christmas Day game at Crypto.com Arena.
The pregame narrative: Luka Doncic is expected to return after missing Tuesday's game with a leg contusion. Still, the Lakers are a slight home underdog against a Rockets team with a 9-8 road record.
Check out my Rockets vs. Lakers SGP predictions for Dec. 25, featuring Doncic and Kevin Durant.
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Rockets vs. Lakers predictions
Parlay: Lakers +8.5 | Doncic over 8.5 assists | Durant 2+ threes (+265)
Lakers +8.5 (-278): Houston is far from the hottest team in basketball right now, so I still feel comfortable backing L.A. on this alt spread at home.
The Lakers have had a tough few weeks, going 4-4 in their last eight. But seven of those games were on the road, and a few were without either Austin Reaves or Doncic.
JJ Redick should have his full arsenal available at Crypto, where the Lakers have thrived this year, ranking 13th in net rating and fifth in offensive rating.
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As for the Rockets, they've been having their own problems.
Houston is 2-5 in its last seven games and is wrapping up a six-game road trip. I expect mental fatigue to set in for the road team, and for the Lakers to come out swinging in front of their home fans.
NBA SGP legs
Doncic over 8.5 assists (-105): A well-rested Doncic should spell trouble for Houston.
Doncic is leading the NBA in scoring (34.1/game) while ranking fourth in assists (8.8/game). He's played six games with three-plus days of rest, and those averages, along with his playing time, see a notable uptick:
- 37.4 PPG
- 9.0 APG
- 39.4 MPG
-> Don't miss out — back Durant and Doncic on Christmas Day!
Houston, by and large, is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. But it has really struggled lately, giving up a whopping 123.0 PPG in its last five (when it has gone 1-4).
For context, that would place the Rockets' defence 27th in the NBA on a season-long basis, right behind the New Orleans Pelicans.
Durant 2+ threes (-240): Durant is shooting the lights out from beyond the arc in December, averaging 2.4 makes per game on 49.0% shooting.
The future Hall of Famer has generally been reliable against this line in the later stages of his career, averaging 2.0+ threes per game in each of the last six seasons.
KD has cleared this line in eight of his last 11 games, and gets a dream matchup to keep cooking.
The Lakers have the worst 3-point defence in the NBA (38.5%).
Rockets vs. Lakers predictions made at 10:34 a.m. on Dec. 24, 2025.
