The NBA's Christmas Day slate delivers five great games from noon till midnight. I've got three prop bets on the action.
Tonight's NBA props narrative: The second game takes place in Oklahoma City, where the reigning champion Thunder host the San Antonio Spurs. I think Victor Wembanyama should feast on the glass. So should fellow No. 1 overall pick, Cooper Flagg, against the Golden State Warriors after that.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec. 25, featuring a best bet on Austin Reaves against the Houston Rockets.
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NBA Christmas Day prop picks
Best bet: Reaves over 26.5 PRA (-125)
Reaves returned from a three-game injury absence on Tuesday, coming off the bench and scoring 17 points while adding a pair of rebounds and assists in a blowout loss.
Los Angeles Lakers head coach JJ Redick stated that Reaves (calf strain) was not on an official minutes restriction, despite only playing him 22 minutes.
This line reflects that Reaves won't play a ton, though. Just look at his averages this year:
- 27.3 points
- 5.4 rebounds
- 6.5 assists
- 50.4 FG%
Reaves' 27.3 scoring average ranks 11th in the NBA and is more than enough to clear this PRA line on its own. He had gone over this mark in 17 of his last 20 games before getting injured.
-> See full props for Rockets vs. Lakers!
I'm sure he won't play 40 minutes on Christmas, but I'm also skeptical we'll see drastically reduced minutes, given that L.A. punted Tuesday's game after a slow start with Luka Doncic sidelined.
Reaves' 775 minutes entering Tuesday were second-most on the team behind Rui Hachimura.
Houston is a great defensive team, but Reaves has three solid games against them last year while not shooting with a ton of volume.
He should be able to replicate that effort on Thursday.
Key stat: Reaves averaged 18.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 6.3 assists (30 PRA) against Houston last year. He went 2-1 against this line while taking 13 shots per game.
Best NBA picks
Flagg over 5.5 rebounds (-154): Flagg is having a moment this month, averaging a monster 24.1 PPG while adding 6.2 rebounds a night.
The No. 1 pick has been especially dominant over his last five:
- 27.6 PPG
- 7.2 RPG
- 4-1 vs. this line
I think there's a good case to back Flagg as a scorer against the Warriors, but I want to hone in on the forward's rebounding abilities, instead.
Flagg had nine boards against Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday and recorded 10 against the rough-rider Detroit Pistons a few days before that.
The undersized Warriors should be easy pickings compared to those squads.
Golden State is 21st in rebounding rate and gives up the sixth-most rebounds per game to power forwards, where Flagg should be playing if P.J. Washington remains sidelined.
-> Don't miss out — go to full betting markets for the NBA Christmas Day slate
NBA player prop predictions
Wembanyama over 8.5 rebounds (-138): In a perfect world, Wembanyama's minutes restriction gets pulled on Thursday.
Seeing the French phenom return to 30-plus minutes a night would be the best Christmas present NBA fans could ask for.
But Wemby should be in a good spot to clear this line, even if he plays around his now-typical 23-25 minutes a game.
He has nine rebounds in 21 minutes when he returned to face OKC in the NBA Cup final on Dec. 23, and has two 12-rebound games since then.
-> Bet on Wembanyama against the defending champs!
Wemby did only have five boards in a blowout, 130-110 win over the Thunder on Tuesday, but I'll view that as an outlier performance.
OKC is 20th in rebounding rate and might be missing big man Chet Holmgren, who exited Tuesday's game with an injury.
NBA prop picks made at 9:11 a.m. ET on Dec. 24, 2025.
