The fifth and final NBA Christmas Day game will be played between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets.
The pregame narrative: This is an exciting matchup between two of the best in the west. The Nuggets can improve to 3-0 in the season series with another win on Thursday.
Check out my Timberwolves vs. Nuggets SGP predictions for Christmas Day, featuring Nikola Jokic and Julius Randle.
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Timberwolves vs. Nuggets SGP
Parlay: Timberwolves +7.5 | Jokic over 11.5 rebounds | Randle over 20.5 points (+340)
Timberwolves +7.5 (-200): Despite not having much success in this matchup so far, I expect the Timberwolves to be competitive on Christmas.
Mostly because of how they're playing. Minnesota is on a three-game heater, which includes beating the New York Knicks and Oklahoma City Thunder.
Overall, the T-Wolves are 8-2 in their last 10 games.
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Denver is no slouch, but it is at a gruelling part of its schedule.
Thursday's game will be the Nuggets' sixth in the past 10 days. They've also lost two of the last three games.
All the momentum in this matchup sides with the Timberwolves, and I think they continue the streak of solid outings in this contest with Denver.
NBA SGP legs
Jokic over 11.5 rebounds (-137): The Nuggets and T-Wolves have played twice this season, giving us enough data to study.
And Jokic has been a beast on the glass in both games.
- Oct. 27 @ Minnesota: 19 rebounds
- Nov. 17 @ Minnesota: 12 rebounds
-> Back Nikola Jokic and Julius Randle on Christmas Day
The three-time MVP is always one of the best rebounders in the NBA, and the story is the same this season as he's averaging 12.0 boards per game.
He also averages 19.6 rebound chances per game, so he can go off on any given night.
Rudy Gobert will spend most of his time in the paint, forcing Jokic to match that. In the post, he should dominate like usual and grab a boatload of rebounds.
Randle over 20.5 points (-167): The Nuggets are a well-oiled machine on offence, leading the NBA in many categories, including offensive rating (126.5).
But they leave something to be desired on defence. They rank in the bottom 10 for defensive rating (117.7).
That brings me to Randle, who's been cooking as the second option behind Anthony Edwards.
- He's averaging 22.6 points on an efficient 48.2% from the field.
- He's scored 21+ points in seven of the past nine games.
On top of that, he's had the Nuggets' number this season. Randle has cashed this wager in both games against Denver, averaging 25.0 points.
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets SGP made at 9:02 a.m. on Dec. 24, 2025.
