The Australian Open semifinals are set, with the four top seeds participating in the men's draw.
The pregame narrative: Carlos Alcaraz can complete the career Grand Slam with a win in Melbourne, but he'll need to get past Alexander Zverev to reach the final. That would likely set up another meeting with Jannik Sinner, who is a massive favourite over 10-time Australian Open champ, Novak Djokovic.
Check out my top Australian Open semifinal picks, featuring a pick on Jessica Pegula vs. Elena Rybakina.
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Australian Open semifinal picks
Best bet: Djokovic +2.5 sets (+115)
Djokovic had luck on his side in the quarterfinal, when a leg injury forced Lorenzo Musetti to retire up two sets to none.
The Italian was down in the third set, but Djokovic's chances were cooked — even he agreed: "I don't know what to say except that I feel really sorry for him. He was the far better player. I was on my way home tonight."
I think the Serbian can parlay that good fortune into a semi-competitive matchup against Sinner.
-> Check out the semifinal Australian Open schedule
Djokovic didn't have to play his fourth-round matchup, either, after Jakub Mensik withdrew with an abdominal injury.
That means the 24-time Grand Slam winner will be fresh against the ATP No. 2-ranked Italian. The extra rest should help bridge the 14-year age gap between the two greats.
Sinner has demolished everyone at this tournament, dropping just one set en route to the semis.
But Djokovic has been competitive in this matchup on hard courts recently, and I believe the veteran can find a way to win a set against his new rival.
Key stat: The Serbian has won at least one set in four of his last five hard-court matches against Sinner. That includes pushing the Italian to four sets at the Australian Open in 2024.
Top Alcaraz vs. Zverev Australian Open prediction
Zverev +6 games (-125): Is fading Alcaraz and Sinner a good idea? Time will tell, but I like the value on Zverev in this matchup.
The German is 6-6 against Alcaraz, and his most recent loss at the Cincinnati Open should be marked with an asterisk. Zverev could hardly move and fought through the injury in a 6-4, 6-3 loss.
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They are 2-2 against each other in Grand Slams, with Zverev going 2-1-1 against this line. That includes a win over Alcaraz at the Australian Open in 2024.
The biggest knock on Zverev is his mental game. The world No. 3 is as talented as they come, but he has never won a Grand Slam despite reaching three finals.
I don't think he can stop another Sinner vs. Alcaraz showdown, but I expect Zverev to put up a good fight if he can keep rolling on his service games.
Zverev hit 74% of his first serves in the quarterfinal with 24 aces to one double fault.
Australian Open pick: Pegula vs. Rybakina best bet
Rybakina -1.5 sets (+105): I've backed Rybakina in consecutive matches, and she's delivered. There's no reason for me to get off this train now.
The Kazakhstani has won all five of her matches at this tournament in straight sets. Her most recent, a 7-5, 6-1 victory over Iga Swiatek, was quite a statement.
- Rybakina has now won 18 of her last 19 matches on hard court.
- That includes wins over Swiatek (twice), Aryna Sabalenka and Pegula.
- 14 of those 18 wins were in straight sets.
-> Bet on Swiatek in the quarters of the Australian Open
Pegula did win a set against Rybakina at the WTA Finals, but that doesn't change my tune on this wager. I'll back the hottest player in the world to keep on chugging.
Australian Open semifinal picks made at 12:50 p.m. on Jan. 28, 2026.
