Two big names are the focus of my 2026 Australian Open picks for tennis action on Jan. 19-20.
The pregame narrative: Naomi Osaka had a career renaissance in 2025, falling just shy of grand-slam glory at the U.S. Open. She's worth backing as a big favourite in the first round, as is American Taylor Fritz.
Check out my top Australian Open picks, featuring a first-round prediction on the Grigor Dimitrov vs. Tomas Machac match.
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Australian Open picks
Best bet: Fritz -2.5 sets (-112)
Unlike Osaka, Fritz has never won a Grand Slam.
But the American is consistently among the top challengers to dethrone Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, and has a good chance to go deep in this event.
Fritz had a huge 2025 season, winning a pair of titles and advancing to the semifinal at Wimbledon. He also downed Alcaraz at the Laver Cup in September, helping the Americans secure the title.
Overall, Fritz posted a 31-12 record on outdoor hard courts, raising his career winning percentage on the surface to 66.9%.
I think Fritz should smash No. 54-ranked Valentin Royer.
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The Frenchman made some noise right after graduating from the challenger tour, but has since struggled mightily, losing five straight matches while winning just three sets.
Key stat: Against players ranked outside of the top 50, Fritz has 13 straight wins on hard courts at Grand Slam events. Eight of those wins came in straight sets.
Naomi Osaka Aussie Open tennis prediction
Osaka -4.5 games (-138): Osaka went from barely playing from 2020-2023 to playing poorly in 2024 to lighting it up in 2025.
The four-time Grand Slam winner went 35-16 with a semifinal appearance at the U.S. Open and a finals appearance at the WTA 1000 National Bank Open in Montreal.
-> Bet on Osaka in the first round of the Australian Open
All four of Osaka's slams came on hard courts, so it's fair to say this is right in her element.
She shouldn't have a problem beating No. 65-ranked Antonia Ruzic, 6-4, 6-3 or better.
The Croatian has never advanced past the first round at a major.
Dimitrov vs. Machac Australian Open prediction
Dimitrov/Machac over 39.5 games (-118): The last time we saw Dimitrov at a tennis major, he was up two sets against Jannik Sinner at Wimbledon and had the Italian on the ropes.
An untimely pectoral injury forced Dimitrov to retire, and he didn't return until October, when he bested hard-serving Frenchman Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in straight sets.
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Injuries have always been a problem for the Bulgarian, but a walkover would void this wager if he were to withdraw mid-match.
Assuming he's 100%, this should be a spirited matchup between two great players.
Dimitrov was fantastic on hard courts from 2023-2025, sporting a 47-23 record (67.14%). Machac is fresh off a win at the Adelaide International, marking his second hard-court title in the last two seasons.
These two have played before, and the match went the distance, tipping Machac's way 6-7, 6-4, 6-3.
If the match were a best-of-five, it would have blown past this number.
Australian Open predictions made at 11:30 a.m. on Jan. 19, 2026.
