The college football season concludes on Monday with the No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers looking to cap off a historic season with a national title.
The pregame narrative: Curt Cignetti and Fernando Mendoza laid a beating on Oregon in the semifinal, and are now on the cusp of becoming the first 16-0 team in the sport's history. The Hooisers are 8-point favourites against a Miami Hurricanes team which has pulled off a few upsets en route to the title game.
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Check out my NCAA national championship predictions in this +325 SGP featuring Kaelon Black and Carson Beck.
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Miami vs. Indiana predictions
Parlay: Indiana moneyline | Black anytime TD | Beck 175+ passing yards (+325)
Indiana moneyline (-345): Indiana's meteoric rise is unlike anything college fans have ever seen. The Hooisers went from being a perennial Big 10 doormat to the country's best team within two years of Cignetti's guidance.
This isn't some fluke story; this is a program which has completely changed directions and will stay on top for a while.
- The Hooisers have the No. 2 scoring offence and defence in the country, beating teams by an average of 31.5 PPG. Yes, 31.5 PPG.
- Indiana crushed Alabama, 38-3, in the quarterfinal before dismantling Oregon, 56-22, in the semis.
- Neither defence had an answer for Mendoza's elite play, as the Heisman winner completed over 85.0% of his passes for eight touchdowns and no interceptions in the playoff games.
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Miami is a great team, but Indiana is a cut above. I'll take the favourites to win this one.
College Football Playoff picks
Black to score (+110): Black isn't a stereotypical bell cow back, splitting time with his fellow supersenior Roman Hemby. Usually, that would be discouraging for a TD pick. But everybody on Indiana's offence is eating right now.
- Black turned 12 carries into 63 yards and two touchdowns in the Peach Bowl against Oregon. He has now scored eight touchdowns in his last seven games.
- The 5-foot-10, 210-pound senior has pounded in three of those scores from the one-yard line.
I'm encouraged by the goal-line usage for Black, but also know he can hit a home run play.
He has a 20-plus yard run in 10 of 16 games this year, and should be able to exploit Miami's middling run defence.
-> Bet on Indiana to beat Oregon in the Peach Bowl
The Hurricanes' D ranks 79th in EPA per rush and 14th in EPA per play, per Game on Paper.
Ducks vs. Hoosiers predictions
Beck 175+ passing yards (-245): Beck is going to have to air it out if Miami is trailing, as I fully expect it to be. Just last week, Oregon's Dante Moore threw for 285 yards on 39 attempts in a blowout loss.
Moore is a better pure passer than Beck, but the Georgia transfer has been fairly consistent against this line and has solid weapons out wide.
-> Bet now on No. vs. No. 1 Indiana
Beck is 12-3 against this teased-down milestone, most recently throwing for 268 yards against the Ole Miss Rebels in the Fiesta Bowl.
The game script should work in our favour, but so should the game plan.
Indiana allows the third-fewest rushing yards per game, meaning Mario Cristobal should be inclined to let Beck loose.
Miami vs. Indiana predictions made at 12:25 p.m. ET on Jan. 18, 2025.
