With their first national championship in program history on the line, the Indiana Hoosiers are two-score favourites in the College Football Playoff title game.
The pregame narrative: Indiana faces the Miami Hurricanes, a once-storied program that returned to relevance with Carson Beck at the helm. Beck is featured in these NCAA football predictions, alongside Indiana big-play specialist Charlie Becker.
Check out my Miami vs. Indiana CFP picks for the national championship on Jan. 19.
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Miami vs. Indiana CFP picks
Best bet: Indiana -8.5 (-110)
You could argue that Miami didn't even deserve to make the CFP, given that the Hurricanes jumped two schools in the end-of-season rankings despite failing to reach the ACC championship game.
But no such argument could be made against Indiana, a team that has dominated at every turn en route to a 15-0 record and the No. 1 seed in the tournament.
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With the No. 2 scoring offence and defence in NCAA Division I, the Hoosiers posted a +31.5 average point differential this season.
And if you're wondering, no, Indiana wasn't merely squashing doormats like Michigan State and Purdue. The Hoosiers went 4-0 SU and ATS with a +82 point differential against Ohio State, Alabama and Oregon.
If the Hurricanes have an advantage in this game, it's on the defensive line. They have two players destined for the NFL, including ACC Defensive Player of the Year Rueben Bain Jr.
But the Hoosiers have the most calm and collected quarterback in the country, Fernando Mendoza, and I don't expect him to get rattled.
Indiana ranked No. 4 in D-I in offensive success rate (49.0%) and should be able to weather one more storm.
Key stat: Indiana's average ATS point differential (+13.6) is the best in the country.
NCAAF national championship prop bet
Becker longest reception — over 22.5 yards (-118): Becker has a third-fiddle role in the Hoosiers' receiving room, but his big-play ability has made him an asset down the stretch.
- The 6-foot-4 sophomore leads the Big Ten in yards per catch (20.5).
- Over his past six games, Becker is averaging 5.3 targets and 76.2 yards.
-> Bet now on No. 10 Miami vs. No. 1 Indiana
Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. get most of the attention in IU's passing game, but Becker can't be overlooked. This is about the quality of Becker's opportunities rather than the quantity.
Becker has at least one catch of 30-plus yards in six of his past seven games — including all three of the Hoosiers' postseason games.
College Football Playoff TD prediction
Beck over 200.5 passing yards (-118): Beck went under this line in Miami's first two playoff games, but he turned up the heat in the CFP semifinal.
In a back-and-forth slugfest against Ole Miss, Beck threw for 268 yards and two scores on 23-of-37 passing. He is now 11-4 vs. this prop on the season.
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The Georgia transfer leads the ACC in passer rating and completion rate, and I think this is a game where he'll need to drop back pretty routinely.
For one thing, the Hurricanes are two-score underdogs. Also, the Hoosiers' run defence is nasty.
Indiana allows the third-fewest run yards per game (77.6) and could easily dominate a Miami offence that ranks 98th in EPA per rush, according to Game On Paper.
Miami vs. Indiana CFP picks made at 4:10 p.m. on Jan. 16, 2026.
