The Miami Heat and Golden State Warriors close out Monday's nine-game MLK Day NBA slate in San Francisco.
The pregame narrative: Miami begins its five-game road trip without Tyler Herro (rib), who didn't travel with the team to the West Coast. Golden State has won five of its last six games and is a 6-point favourite at the time of writing.
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Check out my Heat vs. Warriors SGP picks for Jan. 19, featuring Steph Curry and Bam Adebayo.
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Heat vs. Warriors SGP
Parlay: Warriors -3.5 | Curry 4+ threes | Adebayo 10+ rebounds (+275)
Warriors -3.5 (-159): This seems like a safe number to back the Warriors at tonight, given their recent heater.
- Golden State is 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games.
- In that span, it has won by an average of 13.6 points with three straight double-digit wins.
- The Warriors have the league's best offensive rating (126.7) and second-best net rating (13.3) over the last six games.
To be fair, Steve Kerr's squad has beaten up on some bad teams in that stretch (Kings, Hornets, Bucks), but Miami isn't exactly a juggernaut.
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The Heat are 7-13 on the road and sit 24th in road offensive rating (110.8). Without Herro, Miami should struggle to keep up with Golden State's red-hot offence.
NBA SGP predictions
Curry 4+ threes (-335): Curry is liable to have a monster night whenever he steps on the court, putting this teased-down milestone well within play.
- Curry is averaging 4.4 threes on 11.4 attempts (38.4%) since returning from injury on Dec. 12.
- In that span, he has 4+ threes in 11 of 17 games.
On top of that, Miami is giving up the fifth-most 3s per game to opposing PGs, per Fantasy Pros.
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Curry went nuclear in his lone meeting vs. the Heat last year: 31 points, 8-for-17 from deep. I'm asking for half of that production tonight.
Adebayo 10+ rebounds (-155): Backing big men against the Warriors has been a theme of mine this season.
Last Thursday, I recommended Karl-Anthony Towns to record 12 boards against Golden State in a +275 SGP. He finished with 20, and the wager cashed.
The Warriors are a small-ball lineup through and through, and their one 7-footer is hardly a threat on the glass. Sophomore centre Quinten Post averages more 3-point attempts (4.5) than rebounds (3.9).
Adebayo isn't a giant by NBA standards, but he ranks 10th in rebounds per game (9.6) and has cleared this line in nine of his last 15.
He should feast against a Warriors team allowing the third-most rebounds per game to opposing centres.
Heat vs. Warriors SGP predictions made at 9:30 a.m. on Jan. 19, 2026.
