The NFL is serving up a Week 13 tripleheader for American Thanksgiving, and I'm targeting some big names from the slate.
The pregame narrative: Patrick Mahomes, coming off a season-high 352 passing yards, is lighting it up for the Kansas City Chiefs when they need it most. He draws a Grade-A matchup on Thursday afternoon, while Ja'Marr Chase should thrive in a very familiar matchup in the night game.
Check out my top NFL Thanksgiving prop picks, featuring a prediction on Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews.
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NFL Thanksgiving prop picks
Best bet: Chase over 89.5 receiving yards yards (-118)
Pardon the on-the-nose pun here, but Chase should feast in Baltimore on Thanksgiving.
For one thing, Joe Burrow is back under centre. And while Joe Flacco is capable of slinging it, there's nothing quite like the Burrow-to-Chase connection that was established in their college days at LSU.
Additionally, Tee Higgins (concussion) has been ruled out.
Higgins' presence would've taken some of the heat off Chase, but the absence should only further encourage Burrow to pepper his top wideout with targets.
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Oh, and let's not forget that Burrow and Chase absolutely torched the Ravens last year.
- Oct. 6, 2024 vs. Ravens: 10 catches on 12 targets, 193 yards, two TDs
- Nov. 7, 2024, vs. Ravens: 11 catches on 17 targets, 264 yards, three TDs
The All-Pro wideout has seen a dozen or more targets on three occasions this year, and based on the circumstances with Higgins out, I think there's a good chance it happens again.
Chase is a reigning triple crown winner at the WR position, after pacing the NFL in catches, yards and touchdowns last year. He averaged a cool 100.5 yards per game in 2024.
Though 2025 hasn't been quite as fruitful, he's still averaging a hearty 86.1 yards/game (fifth in the NFL).
Everyone knows where Burrow will be trying to put the ball, but that shouldn't matter. Look for Chase to go off.
Key stat: Chase has 91 or more receiving yards in five of his past six games.
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Best NFL picks
Andrews over 41.5 receiving yards (-117): It's been a while since Andrews cleared this yardage line. In fact, it's only happened once this season (Week 3 vs. Lions).
But a lack of precedent doesn't matter much to me when the matchup is this enticing.
The Bengals have been truly horrendous vs. opposing tight ends, allowing eight of 11 starters to hit this over:
The #Bengals vs. dusty TE situation is out of control:
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 24, 2025
Wk 12: Hunter Henry 7-115-1
Wk 11: Darnell Washington 4-67-0
Wk 10: Bye
Wk 9: Colston Loveland 6-118-2
Wk 8: Mason Taylor 5-34-1
Wk 7: Pat Freiermuth 5-111-2
Wk 6: Tucker Kraft 2-43-1
Wk 5: Sam LaPorta 5-92-1
Wk 4: Evan…
Here's another way to put it: Cincinnati has allowed 962 receiving yards and 13 TDs to opposing tight ends.
No other team has allowed even 800 yards or eight TDs to that position group.
-> Bet on Ja'Marr Chase, Mark Andrews in Bengals vs. Ravens on Thanksgiving!
And like Chase, Andrews was a monster in last year's Bengals/Ravens clashes. He went 2-0 vs. this prop, totalling 10 catches for 123 yards and a touchdown across the two matchups.
Mahomes over 266.5 passing yards (-118): Mahomes has the weapons and the matchup to really pop at Jerry World on Thursday afternoon.
Rashee Rice is a lightning rod who barely needs any space to do something special.
Xavier Worthy is a field-stretcher and downfield burner.
And the ageless Travis Kelce is still finding soft spots in the defence that has him on pace for another 1,000-yard season.
Combine that trio (plus Hollywood Brown) with a sieve-like Dallas Cowboys defence, and you're left with an epic opportunity for Mahomes to stay hot.
- The two-time MVP is averaging 270.6 yards per game this season.
- He has 250+ yards in eight straight games, going 6-2 vs. this prop with a 15:6 TD-to-INT ratio in that span.
Dallas has allowed 270.3 yards/game to opposing QBs, which is the second-most in the NFL. Every game feels like a must-win for KC, and Mahomes should continue taking matters into his own hands.
NFL Thanksgiving prop picks made at 2:39 p.m. ET on Nov. 25, 2025.
