The Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs meet for a high-stakes Thanksgiving clash in Arlington on Nov. 27.
The pregame narrative: This game is worth fighting off the tryptophan for. Dallas (5-5-1) and Kansas City (6-4) currently sit outside the playoff picture. A win would keep each team in the hunt, while a loss would be devastating. The Chiefs are 3.5-point favourites in Week 13 despite their poor road record.
Check out my Chiefs vs. Cowboys predictions, featuring prop picks on Patrick Mahomes and CeeDee Lamb as part of a +310 same-game parlay.
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Chiefs vs. Cowboys predictions
SGP: Cowboys +7.5 | Mahomes 20+ rushing yards | Lamb 70+ receiving yards (+310)
Cowboys +7.5 (-250): I think the Cowboys are live to win this game, and picked them as my top upset prediction for Week 13.
Why? Let me give you the Coles Notes.
- Elite offence: The Cowboys' offence ranks first in yards (387.3 YPG), second in scoring (29.1 PPG) and fifth in EPA per play, per RBSDM.com.
- Key defensive additions: Dallas added five players — ILB Logan Wilson, DT Quinnen Williams, ILB DeMarvion Overshown, SS Donovan Wilson, CB Shavon Revel — following its Week 9 bye.
Two of those defenders (Wilson, Williams) were acquired by trade, and the other three returned from injuries. It's a small two-game sample, but Dallas' defence is 11th in EPA per play since Week 10 while allowing 18.5 PPG.
I expect the offence to put up points, and think the defence can hold Patrick Mahome and Co. in check.
The Chiefs are 1-4 on the road this year, averaging 22.2 PPG.
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Thanksgiving Day SGP picks
Mahomes 20+ rushing yards (-136): Dallas' defence has bottled up two elite running backs since its bye, holding Ashton Jeanty and Saquon Barkley to 29 combined yards on 16 carries (1.8 YPA).
Kansas City's biggest weakness, unquestionably, is its running game.
Isiah Pacheco is expected to return, but he's failed to top 60 rushing yards in 16 straight starts. And Kareem Hunt, while reliable at the goal line, is a shell of his former self.
I can't picture the Chiefs getting the ground game going, but I can envision Mahomes extending a few plays on his own.
The QB is 7-4 against this milestone and is averaging 28.9 rushing yards per game.
Dallas is allowing opposing QBs to rush for 24.6 yards per game. That's the third-highest mark in the NFL, per Football Reference.
Lamb 70+ receiving yards (-157): Lastly, I'm taking the over on Lamb's receiving total.
George Pickens is coming off a monster two-game stretch, totalling 18 catches for 290 yards and two touchdowns. But Lamb had 18 targets of his own in those games, logging nine catches for 141 yards and a TD.
Don't fool yourself into thinking Pickens is the clear-cut No. 1 just yet.
Look at what Lamb has done in seven games so far, excluding Week 3 vs. the Chicago Bears, where he left with an ankle injury:
- 90.3 yards/game
- 6.2 catches/game
- 10.2 targets/game
- 6-1 vs. this line
Pickens has impressed, but I think the pendulum has swung too far. I'll happily back Lamb to reach this milestone at a playable standalone price.
Chiefs vs. Cowboys predictions made at 4:10 p.m. on Nov. 25, 2025.
