The margins are razor-thin in the NFC North, which raises the stakes of Thursday's matchup between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers.
The pregame narrative: Two years ago on American Thanksgiving, the Packers stormed into Ford Field and emerged with an underdog victory. Green Bay is an underdog again as it seeks a fourth consecutive road win.
Check out my Packers vs. Lions predictions for Thanksgiving Day, with a +340 same-game parlay featuring Jahmyr Gibbs and Emanuel Wilson.
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Packers vs. Lions predictions
SGP: Gibbs over 3.5 catches | Wilson anytime TD | Over 44.5 points (+340)
Gibbs over 3.5 catches (-157): The Lions have to continue to get the ball into Gibbs' hands as much as possible. He's as dynamic as any playmaker in the NFL right now.
Gibbs made that abundantly clear on Sunday, turning 26 touches into 264 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns. He had a whopping 11 receptions in the home win over the Giants.
The Packers bottled up Gibbs in their season opener, holding him to just 50 scrimmage yards on 19 touches.
But the Lions did their best to give him chances, and he caught all 10 of his targets in that game.
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Gibbs is now 4-1 vs. this prop in his career against Green Bay, totalling 25 catches on 31 targets.
The third-year tailback is averaging 4.4 catches this season and should be trusted to see ample volume as a receiver again on Thursday.
NFL Thanksgiving Day SGP picks
Wilson anytime TD (-117): After missing one game, Josh Jacobs should immediately resume RB1 duties for the Packers. But they might want to reconsider his workload.
From Weeks 1-10, Jacobs averaged 21.1 touches per game. His backup, Wilson, averaged just 5.8 touches.
To keep Jacobs healthy, it would make sense to bridge that usage gap a bit. Especially when you consider what Wilson did with an elevated opportunity the past two weeks.
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- 147 yards and three rushing TDs on 39 carries
- 27 receiving yards on three targets
- Four carries inside the 5-yard line
I could see the Packers turning to Wilson in goal-line situations as a way of keeping a little more tread on Jacobs' tires. And Wilson has earned a greater slice of the pie overall.
Over 44.5 points (-195): The first 2025 matchup between these teams finished with just 40 points, but I'm expecting an uptick in offence for the rematch.
- Overs are 4-1 in the past five Packers/Lions matchups in Detroit. The average total in those games was 52.4 points.
- Overs are 4-1 in Green Bay's road games this year. Each of the past four cleared this point total.
The Packers held the Lions to 13 points at Lambeau Field in September. But I don't expect them to hold off the No. 2 scoring offence again.
As for Detroit's defence, the Giants just ran up 517 yards and 27 points at Ford Field on Sunday. With Jacobs back, Green Bay's offence should be able to string some quality drives together.
Packers vs. Lions predictions made at 1:35 p.m. ET on Nov. 25, 2025.
