NFL Week 13 kicks off with a three-pack of U.S. Thanksgiving games, and my eyes are set on one upset from that slate.
The pregame narrative: The Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs are fighting for their playoff lives, and I like the value on the former as a 3.5-point home dog. Elsewhere, look for the Cleveland Browns' defence to make noise at home.
Check out my top NFL Week 13 upset picks below.
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NFL Week 13 upset picks
Best bet: Cowboys moneyline (+160)
Are the Cowboys back? It sure looks like it, and I want in.
Dallas scored 24 unanswered points in Week 11 to upset their divisional rival, improving to 5-5-1 while staying in the hunt for playoff seeding.
The Dak Prescott-led offence performed, as it typically does, but I was really impressed by the team's defence. It held the Eagles to 88 second-half yards in the victory, which doesn't seem like a fluke.
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Why? The Cowboys' defence has gotten five key additions since its Week 9 bye:
- ILB Logan Wilson (trade)
- DT Quinnen Williams (trade)
- ILB DeMarvion Overshown (return from injury)
- SS Donovan Wilson (return from injury)
- CB Shavon Revel (return from injury)
That's four impact players, including both inside linebackers, stepping in to revamp what was an awful unit (Revel isn't a starter, though he plays big minutes).
I don't think Dallas' defence is elite, but it looks good enough to keep Kansas City in check while the offence does its job.
Patrick Mahomes and Co. needed an overtime win to scrape by the Indianapolis Colts at home, and have been extremely underwhelming on the road.
Key stat: The Chiefs are 1-4 away from Arrowhead Stadium, averaging just 22.2 PPG.
NFL underdog prediction
Browns moneyline (+235): I backed the Browns to win in Shedeur Sanders' debut last weekend, and they came through.
But it wasn't Sanders' doing at all. The defence, led by DPOY shoo-in Myles Garrett, balled out once again, holding the Las Vegas Raiders to 10 points in the loss.
Garrett added three more sacks to his gaudy total (18) and is now well on pace to break the single-season record (22.5).
He now has an absurd 13 sacks in his last four games, three of which Cleveland lost.
But two of the defeats were against Super Bowl contenders (Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots), and one was fluky as the Browns gave up two special teams TDs against the New York Jets.
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I'm loving what Cleveland's defence is cooking, and think it can wreak havoc against a San Francisco team playing at a travel and rest disadvantage.
The Niners will head East immediately after playing the Carolina Panthers on Monday Night Football.
At the time of writing (pre-MNF), the Niners' offence looks largely healthy. But I wouldn't be surprised if they picked up a couple of bumps and bruises, which could be exacerbated by Cleveland's elite defence.
The Browns rank third in EPA per play, per RBSDM.com.
NFL upset picks made at 4:50 p.m. ET on Nov. 24, 2025.
