The NFL divisional round has arrived with four great games on deck this weekend.
NFL divisional round narrative: Every AFC team holds odds between +230 and +330 to win the conference. The path is wide open for a long-awaited Josh Allen Super Bowl appearance, and the Buffalo Bills are a strong moneyline pick against the Denver Broncos.
Check out our NFL playoff best bets for the divisional round, featuring prop bets on Brock Purdy and TreVeyon Henderson.
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NFL playoff best bets
NFL playoff best bets were written by NorthStar Bets writers Avery Perri and Chris Toman.
Bills moneyline (-105): The Bills just went into Jacksonville and beat the NFL's hottest team in a back-and-forth thriller.
The Jags entered the playoffs on an eight-game heater, putting up big numbers on both sides of the ball:
- +19.1 average margin of victory
- 1st in defensive EPA per play
- 6th in offensive EPA per play
In that span, Jacksonville beat Denver by 14 on the road.
I had the Jags to win last week, but a heroic Allen performance ripped up that ticket. The QB had 306 total yards, three TDs, and a 108.7 passer rating without a turnover.
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In hindsight, betting against the reigning MVP was a bad call.
Bo Nix has had a fine season, but I don't trust him to out-duel Allen in what should be a close game.
The Broncos only had four multi-score wins this season, and don't have the run game to expose Buffalo's big weakness.
This is a battle of good versus great at QB, and I'll take great.
-Perri
NFL playoff prop predictions
Purdy over 227.5 pass yards (-113): This total is 230+ at most other operators, indicating potentially good value.
- Purdy has cleared this line four times in his last five contests.
- The 49ers' Week 18 dud vs. Seattle was the one time he fell short. San Francisco's quarterback went under three other times this season, all double-digit Niners wins.
- In his last four playoff games, Purdy is 4-0 vs. this number and has thrown more than 30 pass attempts in each outing.
Purdy's 49ers are expected to be playing catch-up, opening as the biggest underdogs of the divisional round.
If San Francisco is, in fact, playing from behind, then Purdy should put plenty of balls in the air as the Niners lean on the passing game. And a pass-heavy formula might be the play regardless.
The rested Seahawks, who earned a bye by dominating the 49ers to close out the season, have one of the best run defences in the NFL.
They've shut down star running back Christian McCaffrey on two occasions already. McCaffrey managed 99 yards on 30 carries in his two meetings vs. Seattle, a measly 3.3 yards per attempt.
He hasn't been consistent on the ground but has been active and effective as a receiver. McCaffrey was second in the NFL in yards after catch and is likely to be targeted a ton.
His YAC production will have to remain strong with George Kittle out and Ricky Pearsall's status unclear after missing Week 18 and the wild-card game with a knee injury.
-Toman
Best Texans vs. Patriots prop bet
Henderson over 38.5 rushing yards (-117): Henderson and the New England Patriots host the league's best defence on Sunday, so this is far from an easy matchup.
But this line is too low for me to pass up.
The Houston Texans allowed just 93.7 rushing yards per game in the regular season, and held the Pittsburgh Steelers to 63 rushing yards on 18 attempts in the wild-card round.
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Even then, Jaylen Warren managed to clear this total on 12 carries.
Henderson is in a timeshare with Rhamondre Stevenson, but generally gets enough volume to clear this line.
The rookie averaged 13.5 attempts and 75.8 rushing yards in the final 10 games of the season, logging 50-plus rush yards nine times.
I won't let a quiet wild-card performance (nine carries, 27 yards) cloud the bigger picture.
Bet on Bears ATS vs. Rams
Bears +4 (-112): I like the Bears to win this game outright.
Chicago played some horrible football in the first half of its game against the Green Bay Packers, before staging an epic comeback to win 31-27.
Tidying up the first 30 minutes will be key in beating a team like Los Angeles, and I'm hoping last week's slow start was simply playoff jitters for a young roster.
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The Bears have been an elite team at home this year, going 7-2 and covering this spread in every game.
And home-field advantage should be a big factor. It projects to be cold (-14 degrees Celsius) and inhospitable at Soldier Field, which doesn't bode well for the L.A.-based Rams.
Matthew Stafford has historically struggled in cold temperatures, throwing five interceptions in two games this year played below 10 degrees Celsius.
He’s also dealing with a finger sprain on his throwing hand, which could make it even more difficult to control the ball in windy conditions.
