I've got one player prop from each of the four NFL divisional playoff matchups kicking off over the weekend.
NFL wild-card prop bets narrative: Out of the gate on Saturday, the Buffalo Bills should look to get the ball into the reliable hands of Khalil Shakir. Later on, Jake Tonges is a name to know as the San Francisco 49ers look to replace the irreplaceable George Kittle.
Check out my top NFL divisional prop bets, featuring Sunday predictions on Drake Maye and Colston Loveland.
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NFL divisional prop bets
Best bet: Maye over 35.5 rush yards (-118)
Maye's mobility was on display in the wild-card round, as he rushed for a season-high 66 yards on 10 carries.
Keep in mind that three of those "rushes" were kneeldowns that cost him a yard apiece. So in terms of meaningful plays, he actually turned seven carries into 69 yards ... essentially twice what I'm asking for with this pick.
I thought about backing Maye over 6.5 rush attempts, which includes the potential upside of kneeldowns for the New England Patriots (-3), but this yardage total feels like the right play based on the matchup.
During the regular season, the Houston Texans allowed the fewest rush attempts to quarterbacks (3.1/game). But they also allowed the most yards per rush (6.4).
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Houston has two elite pass-rushers in Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter. They were two of just 10 NFL players with at least 12.0 sacks this season.
Maye should feel some heat in this game, and the Texans' pass defence (No. 1 in EPA per dropback, No. 4 in net yards per attempt) likely won't give him much to throw to downfield.
A handful of effective scrambles will get New England's talented QB1 across this line.
Key stat: Since Week 15, Maye is averaging 6.2 yards/rush and 39.4 yards/game.
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Best NFL picks
Shakir 6+ catches (+100): Josh Allen took a beating last week and should be under siege again with the ferocious Denver Broncos defence bearing down.
Denver led the NFL this season in sacks per game (4.0) and QB knockdown rate (13.5%).
To counteract that pressure, Allen will likely want to get the ball out quickly. His most reliable outlet is Shakir, who's coming off a stellar game (12 targets, 12 catches, 82 yards).
- Shakir's catch rate (75.8%) ranks in the 91st percentile, per RotoWire.
- That has a lot to do with his average depth of target (3.9 yards), which ranks in the second percentile. Shakir sees a lot of high-percentage looks close to the line of scrimmage.
- In last year's wild-card playoff matchup against Denver, Shakir caught all six of his targets for 61 yards. He has now cashed this bet in five straight playoff games.
Loveland over 4.5 catches (-134): Did you know that Loveland led the Bears in receiving yards this year?
He got off to a slow start, as many rookies do, but the tight end out of the University of Michigan really turned it on down the stretch.
- First nine games: 33 targets, 24 catches, 329 yards, 2 TDs
- Last eight games: 64 targets, 42 catches, 521 yards, 4 TDs
Loveland has 10+ targets and 90+ yards in three straight games. Chicago should continue feeding him.
Also, the Rams allowed an average of 5.4 receptions per game to opposing tight ends this season.
-> Back Colston Loveland vs. Rams
NFL player prop prediction
Tonges over 36.5 receiving yards (-118): Kittle's season-ending Achilles injury is crushing for the 49ers, obviously. And Tonges isn't a one-for-one replacement, but I expect him to be productive.
Kittle got hurt in the middle of San Francisco's Week 1 game against Seattle, forcing Tonges into action. He caught all three of his targets in that game, including one that resulted in the game-winning touchdown.
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Tonges has played six full games without Kittle this season. Here's how that went:
- 6.7 targets/game
- 4.8 catches/game
- 44.8 yards/game
- 4-2 vs. this prop
The Seahawks allowed the sixth-most yards to opposing tight ends this year, and Tonges will have a TE1-sized opportunity that makes this prop perfectly attainable.
NFL divisional prop bets made at 3:53 p.m. ET on Jan. 14, 2026.
