Lauri Markkanen faces one of his former teams on Wednesday night, and I think his points prop is a smash play.
Tonight's NBA props narrative: Markkanen and the Utah Jazz are on the road against the Chicago Bulls in a game that should turn into a track meet. Look for the power forward to produce in what continues to be a career year.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 14, featuring Cooper Flagg and Bub Carrington.
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NBA prop picks Jan. 14
Best bet: Markkanen over 26.5 points (-107)
I don't understand why this line sits where it does, but I'll gladly jump on the over at a nice price.
Markkanen is averaging 27.9 points this season, and he'll be in a high-paced scoring environment tonight that should allow him to push for an above-average total.
The Bulls host Markkanen's Jazz for a matchup with the highest over/under on the night's seven-game slate (243 points). Both squads play at a top-five pace and have a bottom-five defensive rating.
When these teams last met in November, they combined for 254 points in regulation. The final score was 150-147 for Utah in double overtime.
Oh, and Markkanen dropped 47 points in that barn-burner.
-> Bet on Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen vs. Bulls!
To sum it up, Markkanen is in a matchup tonight that should produce a mountain of points based on the teams' tendencies, defensive shortcomings, and recent precedent.
And he can cash this bet without even reaching his season scoring average. So yeah, I'm all over that.
Since the start of December, Markkanen has cashed this bet in 10 of 14 games while posting 50.7/38.3/85.6 shooting splits.
Key stat: Markkanen is 4-1 vs. this scoring prop in his past five games against the Bulls (dating back to the 2022-23 season, when he joined the Jazz).
Best NBA picks
Flagg 6+ assists (+143): You can get Flagg over 4.5 assists at -148, which is fine, but I'm cutting out the juice and aiming a bit higher tonight.
Ryan Nembhard, the Dallas Mavericks' assist leader, has come off the bench in four of his past five games. That has left Flagg with a greater opportunity to facilitate in the starting rotation.
In those four recent games with Nembhard playing as a reserve, Flagg has 25 total assists and is 3-1 vs. this milestone prop.
-> Full betting markets for Wednesday's NBA slate
Flagg will face the Nikola Jokic-less Denver Nuggets, and I think he can do his part as a passer. The Nuggets allow the eighth-most assists per game in the NBA.
When Flagg last faced the Nuggets on Dec. 23, he finished with nine assists — his second-highest total of the season.
NBA player prop predictions
Carrington over 1.5 threes (-129): Here's an odd stat: Carrington has a better shooting percentage from 3-point range (42.1%) than he has overall (40.5%).
I'd like to see a bit more 3-point volume from the second-year player, but at a line this low, he's worth a play on Wednesday night.
- Carrington is averaging 2.0 made 3s on 4.7 attempts this season.
- Since Nov. 22, Carrington is 17-6 vs. this prop while averaging 5.9 attempts.
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CJ McCollum used to be the Wizards' most active 3-point shooter, but he plays for the Atlanta Hawks now. That should open things up a bit for guys like Carrington.
In three games since McCollum left, Carrington is 9-for-21 from deep (42.9%).
NBA prop picks made at 9:45 a.m. ET on Jan. 14, 2026.
