Jalen Johnson has been exactly what the Atlanta Hawks have needed this month, and I'm backing him to continue balling out on Saturday night.
Today's NBA props narrative: Johnson and the Hawks are on the road vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, who rank 26th in defensive rating. Later on, look for DeMar DeRozan to have a significant role for the Sacramento Kings.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 22, featuring a fade on Memphis Grizzlies shooting guard Jaylen Wells.
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NBA prop picks Nov. 22
Best bet: Wells under 1.5 threes (+102)
My only guess for why this is priced at plus-money is that Wells has chucked quite a few 3-pointers this season.
The second-year shooting guard has attempted 5.2 threes per game, which is the most among Grizzlies players.
But just because you shoot 'em, it doesn't mean they're going to go in. And Wells' miserable efficiency so far is a big reason why I like this under.
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- Wells has shot 24-for-83 (28.9%) from deep so far.
- Among players who've appeared in at least five games and are averaging at least 5.0 attempted 3s, Wells' 3PT% ranks 89th out of 95.
Wells went over this 3s total in back-to-back games to start the season ... but he's hit the under in 10 of 14 games since.
And though he could burn me with an inefficient, high-volume shooting spree beyond the arc, things aren't trending that way. He's averaging 4.4 attempts this month, so there's been some regression from his October volume (6.5 3PA).
Also, Wells' matchup against the Dallas Mavericks is a perfect one to fade the shooting guard in.
The Mavs have allowed the fewest 3s per game in the NBA this season (11.4) on the fifth-lowest 3PT% (32.8).
Key stat: Dallas allows the fifth-fewest 3s to opposing SGs, according to Fantasy Pros.
Best NBA picks
DeRozan over 17.5 points (-124): The Denver Nuggets are one of the NBA's best defensive teams — and best teams overall — but this is still a number DeRozan should be able to clear.
Back on Remembrance Day, the ex-Raptor scored 18 points on a team-high 15 shots for the Kings. And that was while playing alongside Domantas Sabonis, who went 8-for-12 from the floor.
-> Bet on ex-Raptor DeMar DeRozan vs. the Nuggets tonight!
Sabonis (knee) is out right now, which should clear the runway for DeRozan to take at least as many shots as last time.
In five games this calendar year, DeRozan is 5-0 vs. this points prop when facing the Nuggets. He's averaging 23.6 PPG on 21.2 field goal attempts.
DeRozan is also 11-5 vs. this prop so far this season.
NBA player prop predictions
Johnson over 23.5 points (-115): Johnson has really taken ownership of the Hawks' offence in the absence of Trae Young, and things are going quite well.
Young has missed each of Atlanta's 11 games from Halloween onward, and the team is 7-4 in that span. Johnson has averaged 23.0 PPG in that time on 58.1/.45.9/78.8 shooting splits.
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Johnson's past five games have been particularly stellar:
- 26.2 PPG
- 61.3 FG%
- 59.1 3PT%
- 38+ minutes in 4 of 5
Oh, and he's averaging 11.6 rebounds and 9.0 assists in those five games, too.
Johnson's do-it-all profile justifies his huge minutes totals, and Atlanta should continue leaning on him to drive the offence.
NBA prop picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on Nov. 22, 2025.
