The Kansas City Chiefs are on the verge of must-win territory as they host the rested Indianapolis Colts in Week 12.
The Week 12 narrative: KC has slipped to 5-5 on the season but is favoured at home against Indianapolis (8-2). Later on Sunday, Darnell Mooney will have a shot at taking a step in the right direction amid a miserable season as his Atlanta Falcons face the New Orleans Saints.
Check out our NFL Week 12 staff best bets for our favourite picks this weekend, including a prediction for the Cleveland Browns vs. Las Vegas Raiders matchup and a prop pick on Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
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NFL Week 12 best bets
These NFL Week 12 best bets were provided by NorthStar Bets writers Jordan Horrobin and Spencer Closs.
Browns +4 (-110): The Shedeur Sanders experience was atrocious last week, but he wasn't set up for success as a mid-game injury replacement.
Up next is Sanders' first NFL start, coming on the heels of a full week taking first-team reps in preparation for an awful Las Vegas Raiders squad.
I trust that Browns coach Kevin Stefanski, a two-time NFL Coach of the Year, knows Sanders' limitations and will put his young QB in the best possible spot to succeed.
But enough about the Browns' offence. Cleveland has a legitimately ferocious defence, and that should be the differentiator in this game. The Browns are No. 2 in yards allowed and should stifle a Las Vegas offence that has only surpassed 20 points in one of its past six games.
The Raiders are 0-1 SU in their only game as favourites this season. And they're 3-6-1 ATS overall.
-Horrobin
Colts vs. Chiefs ATS prediction
Colts +3.5 (-114): The Colts and Chiefs are pretty even on paper.
From Week 5 onward, according to RBSDM.com, Kansas City ranks No. 2 in offensive EPA and No. 12 in defensive EPA.
But in the same span, Indianapolis is No. 1 on offence and No. 9 on defence.
-> Visit NorthStar Bets for all NFL Week 12 betting markets
The Colts will have the most dynamic player on the field Sunday, which feels crazy to say with Patrick Mahomes on the other sideline. But Jonathan Taylor — who leads the NFL with 1,139 rush yards and 17 total TDs in 10 games — has just been that good.
Indy is coming off a bye, while KC is coming off back-to-back outright losses as a favourite.
Both of the Colts' losses this year came by one score, and I like them to at least keep this one close.
-Horrobin
Over/under pick
Patriots/Bengals over 49.5 points (-110): This game has high shootout potential.
The Patriots average the eighth-most yards and seventh-most points per game (26.5). And they'll be facing a Bengals defence that's been atrocious.
Cincinnati is surrendering a league-high 33.4 points per game. But its offence has been firing under Joe Flacco.
In Flacco's five starts, Cincinnati is scoring 28.6 points per game.
The Bengals have hit the over in seven of 10 games this season. That's tied for the most in the NFL.
-Closs
-> Bet on Patriots vs. Bengals
NFL Week 12 best bets: Player props
Mooney over 46.5 receiving yards (-112): Despite some wildly discouraging results, opportunity should continue to knock for Mooney.
- Last year, Mooney was eight yards shy of 1,000 in his first season with the Atlanta Falcons. This year, he's not even on pace for 500 yards.
- His target share is down in 2025, but not to the point where his yardage total should be so low. In the past four weeks, for example, Mooney has six catches on 21 targets.
Atlanta's WR1, Drake London, is expected to miss Sunday's game with a knee injury. That should vault Mooney into the top receiving role.
Mooney should see seven-plus targets for a third consecutive game, and if he does, I think there's plenty of value on a yardage total this low.
According to Rotowire, Mooney's average depth of target (14.9 yards) ranks in the 90th percentile. That means we should only need a few successful connections between Mooney and Kirk Cousins to cash this bet.
-> Bet on Mooney vs. the Saints!
Last year, with Cousins at the helm, Mooney went 2-0 vs. this yardage total against the Saints, going for 102 yards combined in two matchups.
-Horrobin
Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 94.5 receiving yards (-112): This is a big total, no doubt, but Smith-Njigba is the WR1 heading into Week 12.
His stats are otherworldly. Take a look at where they rank in the NFL:
- 1,146 receiving yards (1st)
- 114.6 yards/game (1st)
- 72 receptions (4th)
JSN is 8-2 against this line, finishing with 93 and 79 yards in the unders.
The wideout's floor is sky-high right now, and it just makes sense to back him at any yardage total under 100.
-Closs
NFL Week 12 best bets made at 3:40 p.m. ET on Nov. 19, 2025.
