Two teams with backup QBs, the Cleveland Browns and Arizona Cardinals, have piqued my interest as upset candidates this week.
The pregame narrative: Shadeur Sanders' first taste of NFL action didn't go as he would've liked, but he's in line to start if Dillon Gabriel (concussion) isn't ready for Sunday. Cleveland's real strength is its defence, though, which should thrive against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Check out my top NFL Week 12 upset picks for games on Nov. 23.
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NFL Week 12 upset picks
Best bet: Browns moneyline (+155)
The Browns have a quarterback dilemma brewing — what else is new?
But Cleveland's strategy, whether it's Sanders or Gabriel under centre, should be simple: Run the ball and play strong defence.
Myles Garrett is arguably the best player in the NFL and is barrelling toward a second DPOY award after recording 10 sacks in his last three games.
Cleveland lost each of those contests, mind you, but two were to legit Super Bowl contenders (Patriots, Ravens) and one was to a New York Jets team with two special teams touchdowns.
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The Raiders are as dysfunctional as the Browns, and just got throttled by the Dallas Cowboys, 33-16, on Monday Night Football.
Las Vegas is now averaging just 13.0 points in its last six games.
In that span, Geno Smith has been sacked 19 times and has thrown six picks. His offensive line isn't capable of blocking anyone, let alone the scariest man in the game.
Cleveland should win this game as long as it doesn't shoot itself in the foot.
Key stat: The Browns' defence ranks fifth in EPA per play, and the Raiders' offence ranks 30th in EPA per play, per RBSDM.com
NFL underdog predictions
Cardinals moneyline (+125): Jacoby Brissett has done all Arizona could ask for, and then some, in Kyler Murray's absence.
- Brissett has a 10-to-3 TD:INT ratio with a 66.7 completion percentage. He's averaging 314 yards/game.
- He's attempted an absurd 42.6 passes per game and completed 47-of-57 passes (that's not a typo) against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 11.
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The Cards have only won one of Brissett's five starts, but he's had them mostly competitive, losing by less than a score to the Indianapolis Colts and Green Bay Packers.
Arizona's last two games were uglier — a pair of 22-point losses to divisional rivals — but the Jacksonville Jaguars aren't exactly juggernauts.
The Jags have lost three of their last five games and only have two wins by more than a score this year.
Marvin Harrison Jr. also might return, which would be a nice shot in the arm for Arizona's offence.
NFL upset picks made at 2:50 p.m. ET on 11/11/2025.
