Three big men are the focus of Friday's NBA prop bets.
Tonight's NBA props narrative: Domantas Sabonis was a full participant in practice yesterday and is eyeing a return tonight against the Washington Wizards. The three-time rebounding champ should be active on the glass. Elsewhere, look for rookie Derik Queen to stuff the stat sheet against the Indiana Pacers.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 16, featuring a bet on Cleveland's Evan Mobley.
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NBA prop picks Jan. 16
Best bet: Queen over 23.5 points/rebounds/assists (-130)
Queen's production can fluctuate wildly on a nightly basis, but his per-game PRA average is right around this line:
- 12.5 PPG
- 7.5 RPG
- 4.5 APG
Putting up 24.5 PRA as a rookie centre on an awful team is no small feat. The No. 13 pick out of Maryland has been dubbed "Baby Jokic" on Basketball Reference, for his high ceiling as a do-it-all big.
Is that wildly premature and a little bit disrespectful to the real thing? Sure. But Queen has nine double-doubles and two triple-doubles this year, along with two 30-point games.
-> Bet on Derik Queen vs. Pacers!
Tonight's matchup is perfect for Queen to have a Jokic-esque game.
Indiana has the second-worst rebounding rate in the NBA and plays at the 10th-fastest pace (possessions per 48 minutes), per NBA.com.
The Pacers also give up the ninth-most points and assists per game to opposing centres, per Fantasy Pros.
Key stat: Queen smashed this line in his lone meeting with Indiana this year. He had 17 points, 10 rebounds and four assists on 8-of-8 shooting.
Best NBA picks
Sabonis over 9.5 rebounds (+106): Sabonis has led the league in rebounding in each of the last three seasons, with absurd marks over the last two campaigns:
- 2023-24: 13.7 RPG
- 2024-25: 13.9 RPG
The big man missed 27 games with a partial meniscus tear, so he will likely be eased back into action — especially since his name is floating around some serious trade rumours.
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But I expect Sabonis to clear this line even on a minutes restriction.
He's the world's best rebounder and is going up against an undersized Wizards team missing Khris Middleton and Bilal Coulibaly.
Washington gives up the most rebounds per game to opposing centres (16.63).
NBA player prop predictions
Mobley over 2.5 steals and blocks (+100): I don't typically recommend these types of bets, but the reigning Defensive Player of the Year has been on a tear since returning from injury and re-entering Cleveland's starting lineup on Dec. 29:
- 2.8 blocks/game
- 1.1 steals/game
- 7-2 vs. this line
Mobley has recorded five "stocks" (steals plus blocks) in back-to-back games, logging four blocks and a steal against the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday.
He plays the Sixers again tonight, and I love the value on a repeat performance.
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NBA prop picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET on Jan. 16, 2026.
