The Houston Texans and New England Patriots battle for a spot in the AFC Championship game on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: This figures to be a defensive battle, with the lowest over/under (40.5) on the divisional round slate. New England is a 3-point home favourite as expectant MVP finalist Drake Maye is tasked with beating the league's No. 1 scoring defence.
Check out my Texans vs. Patriots picks, featuring predictions on Maye and Woody Marks.
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Texans vs. Patriots picks
SGP: Patriots +5.5 | Maye 250+ passing and rushing yards | Marks 40+ rushing yards | Under 49.5 points (+360)
Patriots +5.5 (-375): I expect the Patriots to win this game, but will buy a boatload of points teasing them through to a field goal-plus underdog.
C.J. Stroud did everything in his power to lose last week's wild-card game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, throwing an interception and losing two fumbles.
The Texans' elite defence bailed him out, but I don't trust the Ohio State product in the slightest.
Stroud is 7-8 in outdoor road games, with an 83.9 passer rating. For context, that 83.9 rating would rank 36th among QBs with five-plus starts this year, right between Geno Smith and Dillon Gabriel.
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New England has covered this mark in 15 straight games since Week 4, going 14-1 straight up.
Texans vs. Patriots prop predictions
Maye 250+ passing and rushing yards (-139): Maye was named second-team All-Pro last week, indicating he might finish runner-up to Matthew Stafford in MVP voting.
Is that fair? Take a look at Maye's stats and judge for yourself:
- 1st in completion percentage (72.0%)
- 1st in passer rating (113.5)
- 1st in completion percentage above expected (+10.8)
- 1st in rushing + passing yards per game (284.9)
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Stafford had more passing yards and passing touchdowns, but Maye made up for that by using his legs like Josh Allen.
The signal caller is 15-3 against this line and had north of 300 total yards against the Chargers last week. Houston's defence is elite, but L.A.'s isn't far off.
I expect Maye to rise to the occasion.
Marks 40+ rushing yards (-335): Marks had a career game last week, totalling 112 yards and a score on 19 carries against the Steelers.
The rookie has now reached this milestone in eight of his last nine games. The outlier was a seven-carry, 30-yard outing against the Arizona Cardinals, where he left in the first half with an injury.
Marks is a fan of the medical tent, so injury risk could be a factor on Sunday.
But I'm not going to play hypotheticals. Marks looked great last week and should have no problem reaching this teased-down milestone.
SGP prediction: NFL ATS pick
Under 49.5 points (-360): Finally, I'm teasing up the under big time to raise this SGP from +200 to +360.
As mentioned, I don't expect the Texans to do much offensively. Stroud has been a consistent negative on the road, and Houston needed multiple defensive scores to crack 30 points last week.
The under on this total is 8-1 in games the Texans have played against playoff teams this year (including last week's game vs. Pittsburgh).
The only outlier was a matchup at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Outdoors, on the road, Houston will try to turn this matchup into a rock fight.
Texans vs. Patriots picks made at 12 p.m. on Jan. 16, 2025.
