The NFL divisional round begins with a pick'em as the top-seeded Denver Broncos host the Buffalo Bills.
The pregame narrative: Buffalo won its first road playoff game in the Josh Allen era and now faces the well-rested Broncos at Mile High. Denver posted an 8-1 record at home and aims to avenge last year's playoff defeat to the Bills in Orchard Park.
Check out my Bills vs. Broncos picks, featuring Allen and RJ Harvey.
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Bills vs. Broncos picks
SGP: Bills moneyline | Allen 200+ passing passing yards | Harvey 40+ rushing yards (+350)
Bills moneyline (-104): I expected the Jacksonville Jaguars to win last week, and Allen just wouldn't let that happen.
The reigning MVP put forth a heroic performance to topple a Jags team that entered the playoffs on an eight-game winning streak.
In that span, Jacksonville won by an average of 19.1 points and beat the Broncos by 14 in Denver. If you want to play the common opponent game, Buffalo is looking pretty good.
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It's hard to argue that the Broncos are juggernauts, despite their seeding. Only four of their 14 wins came by two scores, and their offence averaged a middling 23.6 PPG.
I'll take Allen to out-duel Bo Nix any day of the week.
Bills vs. Broncos prop prediction
Allen 200+ passing yards (-167): There is no such thing as a "free leg" in sports betting, but this feels pretty safe to me.
In fact, I nearly considered including Allen to record 225+ passing yards at plus money, which would raise this SGPs payout to +525.
I mean, just look at his playoff passing numbers:
- 259.4 yards/game
- 200+ yards in 12 of 14 games
- 225+ yards in 10 of 14 games
Allen has obliterated this milestone in all five of his road playoff games, averaging 278 passing yards and a 97.7 passer rating.
-> Go to full Josh Allen player prop markets
He just had 273 yards against the Jaguars' elite defence and should keep at it on Saturday.
SGP prediction: Fade Buffalo's rush defence
Harvey 40+ rushing yards (-360): Buffalo's one big weakness is its rush defence. Luckily for the Bills, Denver doesn't have much of a rush attack to speak of with J.K. Dobbins sidelined.
Still, Sean Payton will at least want to try to pound the rock.
- Buffalo's run defence ranked in the bottom five in yards per attempt (5.1), yards per game (136.2), and EPA per rush during the regular season.
- Both of Jacksonville's RBs (Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten) had 50+ rushing yards in the wild-card round.
-> Bet on full player prop markets for Bills vs. Broncos
Enter Harvey, who is expected to get the bulk of carries for Denver on Saturday.
The 24-year-old averaged 14.2 rushes and 52.2 yards in his final five games of the season. Not super efficient, but he went up against some tough defences (Chargers, Chiefs, Jaguars, Packers).
Harvey should smash this mark against Buffalo.
Bills vs. Broncos picks made at 10 a.m. on Jan. 15, 2025.
