The NBA MVP favourite is back in action tonight after an epic Christmas Day performance, and I'm backing him to ball out again.
Tonight's NBA props narrative: Nikola Jokic does it all for the Denver Nuggets. On Saturday night, his assists prop is what has my eye. Elsewhere, I'm looking for Canadian Andrew Nembhard to do his part as a passer.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec. 27, featuring a prediction on Derik Queen.
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NBA prop picks Dec. 27
Best bet: Nembhard over 1.5 threes (-143)
Tyrese Haliburton's season-long injury absence is obviously a substantial negative for the Indiana Pacers.
But for those in search of a silver lining, allow me to introduce you to Nembhard's fourth-year surge.
The Aurora, Ontario native leads the team in assists (6.5/game) and is third in points (17.4/game). In Years 1-3, he averaged 9.6 points and 4.6 assists.
Haliburton was the primary passer on last year's Indiana squad, and he was the main 3-point shooter, too.
Though Nembhard isn't leading the Pacers in shot volume from the outside, he has taken on far greater responsibility in that realm.
- This season: 5.0 attempts/game, 36.2 3PT%
- First three seasons: 2.9 attempts/game, 33.5 3PT%
-> See full props for Pacers vs. Heat!
I'm not wowed by Nembhard's efficiency, but at 5.0 attempted 3s per game, he's worth a look in this prop market.
Tonight, Nembhard will face a fast-paced Miami Heat team that averages 104.54 possessions per game (most in the NBA). The Heat allow the second-most attempted 3s to their opponents (41.2/game).
If Saturday's game is free-flowing, look for Nembhard to put up enough 3s to give this over a good chance.
Key stat: Nembhard is 13-10 vs. this 3s prop, including 9-6 in his past 15 (with a 38.9 3PT% in that span).
Best NBA picks
Queen under 14.5 points (-121): Queen's New Orleans Pelicans will host the Phoenix Suns for the second time in as many nights tonight, and I think the big man is worth fading.
This has nothing to do with the fact that it's a back-to-back, but rather that the Suns have already bottled him up twice in his rookie season.
- Last night, Queen was held to seven points on 3-for-9 shooting in a 115-108 loss.
- On Nov. 10, the ex-Maryland centre shot 5-for-10 from the floor to finish with 12 points (in a 121-98 loss).
-> Full betting markets for Saturday's NBA slate
The Suns play at the 10th-slowest pace in the NBA and allow the ninth-fewest points. I'm not saying they have Queen figured out, per se, but their style of play mixed with their results against him so far make this under a solid pick.
Queen has gone under 14.5 points in 19 of 32 games so far.
NBA player prop predictions
Jokic over 10.5 assists (-103): This price feels like a steal for arguably the best passer in the sport.
- Jokic is averaging a league-high 18.2 potential assists, which denotes passes that lead directly to a shot. He's also first in the NBA in actual assists (11.0/game).
- In December, Jokic is 7-4 vs. this prop.
In a win over the Orlando Magic on Dec. 18, Jokic had 13 assists as part of a triple-double. Now, coming off his best game of the season (a 56-point triple-double on Christmas Day), he'll face the Magic again.
-> Bet on Nikola Jokic in Nuggets vs. Magic on Saturday night!
Jokic has 10+ assists in four of five games vs. Orlando since the start of the 2023-24 season. Backing him over 10.5 assists at near-even money is great value.
NBA prop picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 27, 2025.
