A pair of red-hot NFC teams with a lot on the line will meet in prime time for Sunday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: The Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers are both 11-4 and have a shot at the conference's top seed. San Francisco, riding a five-game win streak (straight up and ATS), is a 3-point home favourite.
Check out my Bears vs. 49ers picks for Dec. 28, featuring a prop bet on Christian McCaffrey.
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Bears vs. 49ers picks
Best Bet: McCaffrey under 42.5 receiving yards (-112)
McCaffrey is having an elite season and should exceed 2,000 scrimmage yards for the third time in his career.
That's why he's on the shortlist of Offensive Player of the Year contenders.
The 49ers should look to get McCaffrey plenty of touches again on Sunday night — adding to his NFL-high average of 24.8 touches per game — but I don't expect that to translate into a big night as a receiver.
- The Bears have allowed the third-fewest receiving yards to opposing running backs this year (363). On a per-game basis, that's only 24.2 yards per game.
- McCaffrey is averaging 56.5 receiving yards per game this season ... but this under is 4-1 in his past five games.
-> Fade McCaffrey as a receiver on Sunday Night Football
McCaffrey went over 42.5 receiving yards in 10 straight games to start the season. But the Niners were missing either Jauan Jennings or Ricky Pearsall (or both) in seven of those games.
Jennings has been a monster down the stretch, with seven TDs in his past seven games, and is fully healthy. Pearsall missed last week's game but practiced all week and appears likely to suit up.
George Kittle (ankle) is questionable, and his absence could mean more targets underneath for McCaffrey.
I expect the veteran tight end to tough it out and play, but even if he doesn't, this matchup is a bad one for McCaffrey as a receiver.
The Bears have only allowed three running backs to clear this receiving yards total all season.
Key stat: McCaffrey has averaged 31.4 receiving yards over his past five games.
SNF ATS prediction
49ers -3 (-114): Both teams are riding high entering this weekend, and it's certainly not easy to fade a Chicago squad that's 5-0-1 ATS since Week 11.
But I'm not all the way impressed with the Bears' efforts on the road. And that's a key part of my rationale for this prediction.
Yes, Chicago pulled off an impressive Black Friday win in Philadelphia four weeks ago, but the Bears' overall results away from Soldier Field are just so-so.
Despite a 5-3 road record, Chicago has a -34 point differential in those matchups. Ben Johnson's bunch has executed several Houdini-calibre escapes to climb to the top of the NFC North.
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I'm not expecting the Niners to be the next victim. San Francisco is 7-2-1 ATS as a favourite this season, covering in six straight games while laying points.
Each of the Niners' past seven wins has come by at least 10 points. If you think the home team will win — and I do — expect it to be by margin.
Bears vs. 49ers picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET Dec. 27, 2025.
