The Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers clash in the second game of the Saturday NFL doubleheader.
The pregame narrative: Both teams are in pursuit of the top spot in their respective divisions. This should be a gritty battle between two of the top defences in the NFL, with the winner putting pressure on their division leader.
Check out my Texans vs. Chargers SGP predictions, featuring Nico Collins and Justin Herbert.
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Texans vs. Chargers predictions
SGP: Under 47.5 | Collins over 61.5 receiving yards | Herbert 20+ rushing yards (+340)
Under 47.5 (-315): This has all the makings of a low-scoring contest between a couple of strong defensive units.
In that case, I will jack up the total and take the under for some negative correlation in this parlay, which ultimately raises the payout.
Let me start with the Texans. They concede the fewest points (16.6) and the fewest yards per game (293.8). It's hard to argue against them being the best defence in the league.
Additionally, Houston is playing incredible football, winning seven straight games anchored by elite defensive play.
The Chargers aren't as good, but still very respectable on that side of the ball.
They allow the second-fewest yards per game (299.1), which leads to the eighth-fewest points (20.1).
That's telling of how hard it will be for both teams to move the ball on Saturday. Expect an all-around shutdown effort.
Other SGP picks
Collins over 61.5 receiving yards (-115): Collins went for 85+ yards in three straight games before finishing just shy of this total last week with 59.
Overall, that makes him 4-2 against this line over the past six weeks. He did have 55+ yards in both games he went under, which is nice to see.
He hasn't quite been as explosive this season as he was in 2023, but still, he already has 1,000+ yards for the third straight year.
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The 26-year-old has not only developed into one of the best receivers in the NFL, but he's also proving to be extremely consistent.
This is a tough matchup, as mentioned before, but I believe this line is set too low.
Collins has been targeted a career-high 116 times, and he averages 75.7 receiving yards per game.
Herbert 20+ rushing yards (-157): With the constant pressure provided by the Texans' defence, Herbert should be uncomfortable in the pocket, leading to a lot of scrambling.
And that's when he can find space and blast past this line.
Herbert is more known for his cannon of an arm, but he's also quite fast and can rack up big yardage numbers when he has to.
He's 10-5 against this wager this season, rushing for 30+ yards six times.
Houston has the seventh-best sack percentage in the NFL (8.0 %), so Herbert will need to use his legs to avoid pressure.
He then only needs one or two big runs to cash the over on this modest total.
Texans vs. Chargers predictions made at 9:14 a.m. on Dec. 24, 2025.
