The Australian Open begins on Saturday with some big names looking to start the tennis year off right.
The pregame narrative: Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz traded major victories back and forth last season, with the former winning in Australia. Alcaraz needs a victory in Melbourne to complete the career grand slam, and opens his tournament as a massive favourite over Adam Walton.
Check out my top Australian Open predictions for the first-round matchups, featuring a pick on Canadian Gabriel Diallo.
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Australian Open predictions
Best bet: Diallo +2.5 sets (-132)
Diallo is a nightmare draw for No. 3-seed Alexander Zverev, who must be getting desperate for that elusive grand slam win.
The German has never won one of tennis' crown jewels despite his elite talent level. He failed to reach the quarterfinal in each of the last two majors, losing in the opening round at Wimbledon last year.
-> Bet on Diallo against Zverev at the Australian Open
Diallo has a massive serve and some impressive performances under his belt already.
The 6-foot-8 Canadian won the Libema Open, pushed Taylor Fritz to five sets at the All England Club, and went the distance against Alex de Minaur at the Rolex Paris Masters.
Do I think he can beat Zverev? No. But winning a set shouldn't be too much to ask.
Expect a strong service game to carry Diallo to a set win.
Key stat: Diallo has won a set in three of his five matches against ATP top-six-ranked players. He also forced Jannik Sinner to a tiebreak at the Cincinnati Masters.
Aussie Open: Alcaraz vs. Walton tennis pick
Alcaraz -9.5 games (-110): Alcaraz tends to start tournaments slowly and play with his food.
He doesn't actually lose, like Zverev, but we saw him struggle in the opening round at each of the last three Grand Slams.
He needed five sets to get past Fabio Fognini at Wimbledon, and failed to cover this line at the French Open (vs. Giulio Zeppieri) and U.S. Open (vs. Reilly Opelka).
-> Bet on Alcaraz to cruise in the opening round
But the buck should stop here against ATP No. 79-ranked Walton.
- Walton got demolished on the ATP Tour last year, posting a 13-20 record while going ice cold down the stretch.
- He started this year in bad form, too, losing in the first round at the Brisbane International, 6-3, 6-2.
- Alcaraz has a career 37-2 record in five-set matches against players outside of the ATP top 50.
- The Spaniard won each of his last 12 against that level of competition, covering this game spread five times while winning by nine games twice.
With the added fuel of a career grand slam on the line, Alcaraz should leave no doubt in his opener.
Australian Open predictions made at 4:45 p.m. on Jan. 16, 2026.
