Running backs are the focus of my college football Week 13 prop picks, with LJ Martin and Jadan Baugh headlining the predictions.
The latest: Baugh's Florida Gators look to upset the No. 20 Tennessee Volunteers, while Martin's No. 11 BYU Cougars are narrow road favourites in Cincinnati. Both tailbacks are accustomed to hefty workloads and should get more of the same on Saturday.
Check out my favourite college football Week 13 prop picks, featuring a prediction on Michigan Wolverines tailback Bryson Kuzdzal.
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College football Week 13 prop picks
Best bet: Martin over 93.5 rushing yards (-118)
Martin has gone under this rushing total in three straight games, but there's some important context to consider here.
In Week 9 at Iowa State, Martin sustained a shoulder injury that forced him out of the game in the first half. To that point, he'd rushed just five times for 15 yards and a touchdown.
Thanks to a bye week, Martin didn't miss any time. But he was limited in his Week 11 return, seeing just 10 carries at Texas Tech in a blowout loss.
-> Bet on No. 11 BYU vs. Cincinnati on Saturday!
Last Saturday, at home against TCU, Martin turned in the type of RB1-style production he's used to: 88 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries.
Yes, that marked his third straight game going under a 93.5-yard total, but the carry count was a positive indicator that he's back to full go. Martin was not listed on the Cougars' injury report heading into this weekend.
Look at what Martin did in his first seven games of the year, before the injury at Iowa State:
- 18.1 carries/game
- 110.6 yards/game
- 90+ yards in 6 of 7 games
Cincinnati's defence has been dreadful against the run this year, ranking 117th in success rate (per Game On Paper).
The Bearcats are also 90th in NCAA Division I in rush yards allowed per game (167.4).
Key stat: Excluding his two injury-affected games, Martin has averaged 107.8 yards this season.
CFB prop bets
Kuzdzal 2+ touchdowns (+180): Michigan had to go deep into its running back depth chart last week in crunch time against unranked Northwestern. Kuzdzal stepped up, and I think he could see another hefty workload this week.
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Justice Haynes, Michigan's RB1, will miss at least the rest of the regular season for the Wolverines. After him is Jordan Marshall, who exited the Northwestern game with a shoulder injury.
Kuzdzal entered for Marshall last week and carried 15 times for 53 yards. He'd only had 10 carries on the season heading into that game.
Marshall is listed as day-to-day and could suit up at Maryland. But his availability vs. No. 1 Ohio State the following week is far more important.
I expect Michigan to put more mileage on Kuzdzal, a former walk-on who was instrumental in helping the Wolverines' shaky offence seal a win last Saturday.
Maryland allows 185.2 rush yards per game (111th in D-I) and ranks 89th in opponent rushing success rate.
Baugh over 105.5 rushing/receiving yards (-120): Quarterback DJ Lagway isn't the prince that was promised in Gainesville. As a result, the bulk of the Florida Gators' offensive responsibilities have fallen on Baugh.
The sophomore tailback is averaging 98.3 scrimmage yards this season, doing his best work at The Swamp.
Check out his averages in four home games:
- 20.5 touches
- 122.8 scrimmage yards
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Baugh failed to cash this bet in his first two home games (Weeks 1 and 2) because the Gators weren't throwing him the ball. But now he's a legit dual-threat back.
From Week 3 onward, Baugh has averaged 3.9 receptions per game in addition to 17.1 rush attempts. With such high volume, he should feast against a sieve-like Tennessee Volunteers defence.
Tennessee is allowing 409.7 yards per game against D-I, which is 93rd in the country and third-last in the SEC.
College football prop picks made at 11:40 a.m. on Nov. 21, 2025.
