The final weekend of the regular season is here, and I have a trio of NFL Week 18 upset picks on my radar.
The pregame narrative: Not every team that wants to win in Week 18 will win in Week 18. That's why I'm betting on the Tennessee Titans to shock the Jacksonville Jaguars. Elsewhere, I'm backing the San Francisco 49ers and Carolina Panthers to win a pair of pivotal Saturday showdowns.
Check out my top NFL Week 18 upset picks for Jan. 3-4.
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NFL Week 18 upset picks
Best bet: Titans moneyline (+475)
A little over a month ago, the Jaguars beat the Titans, 25-3, in Tennessee.
So why on earth am I backing the Titans this time around?
Firstly, this is it for Tennessee. This squad isn't going to the playoffs, and it's not playing another football game for almost nine months.
And not all bottom-feeders are created equally. Unlike the Las Vegas Raiders and the New York Jets, Tennessee has its quarterback of the future on the roster.
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This team is going to throw its hardest punch at the Jags in a divisional game with serious stakes.
Jacksonville has become the toast of the AFC since its lopsided win over the Denver Broncos, but I wasn't impressed with its effort against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 17.
The Jaguars played with their food in a 23-17 win over Indianapolis. The offence routinely stalled in the red zone, going just 2-for-5 inside the 20 with an end zone interception from Trevor Lawrence.
The Titans, meanwhile, are starting to see the high-end skills that made Cam Ward the first overall pick. Ward has thrown eight touchdowns to just one interception in his last four games.
I expect Tennessee to be up for this game and to stun Jacksonville.
Key stat: Tennessee has won two of four games since losing to the Jags.
NFL underdog predictions
49ers moneyline (+100): San Francisco is only a slight underdog in this game, but I think I've earned the right to put them here, considering the long odds of my best bet.
The 49ers have navigated a fine margin to be in the mix for first place in the NFC. They've managed six consecutive wins to get to this spot.
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It's no coincidence that this streak started when Brock Purdy returned to the lineup. He has been especially stellar lately, tossing 11 touchdowns to just two interceptions across his last three outings.
A quarterback whose play is moving in the opposite direction is Sam Darnold. Darnold has thrown three touchdowns to three interceptions in his last three games.
Although the Seattle Seahawks are 3-0 in those games, two of those wins were by two points or fewer.
Christian McCaffrey continues to lead the Niners. The running back casually posted 181 scrimmage yards in the team's Week 17 victory, and he had 142 scrimmage yards in San Francisco's win against the Seahawks earlier this season.
I expect the Niners to turn this into a shootout at home, and I don't expect Seattle to keep up.
Panthers moneyline (+125): Lastly, this is mainly a play against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The wheels are firmly off the Tampa wagon. The Bucs have lost four consecutive games and seven of their last eight.
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This ultimately boils down to Baker Mayfield's health. The Tampa Bay quarterback has been on the injury report with several injuries this year and has battled through them. Although his toughness deserves recognition, it's not helping his team earn wins.
Here are the unignorable first-half and second-half splits from Mayfield:
- First eight games: 239.9 passing yards per game, 13 TDs, two INTs
- Last eight games: 196.4 passing yards per game, 12 TDs, eight INTs
The Panthers aren't world-beaters by any stretch, but if Bryce Young plays a clean game, they'll beat the Bucs for the second time in three weeks and win the NFC South.
NFL upset picks made at 2:46 p.m. ET on Dec. 29, 2025.
