I'm looking for Jalen Brunson to stay active from 3-point land on Monday night as one of my three NBA prop bets.
Tonight's NBA props narrative: Brunson is 16-for-36 (44.4%) from deep in his past three games and has some plus-money intrigue against the New Orleans Pelicans. Elsewhere, I like Nikola Jokic to put up yet another hefty assist total.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec. 29, featuring a prediction on Toumani Camara.
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NBA prop picks Dec. 29
Best bet: Jokic over 11.5 assists (-106)
I know this line is high, but I still think it's worth it to back the NBA's premier passer.
- Jokic leads the league in assists per game (11.1). He's on track for a career-high assist total after setting his career-best mark last season (10.2 APG).
- Jokic is second in the NBA in potential assists per game (18.1). On a nightly basis, he's averaging just north of 18 passes that lead directly to a shot.
- In December, Jokic is 7-5 vs. this prop while averaging 11.3 APG.
The three-time MVP has 12+ assists in four straight games. He should extend that streak in a plus matchup tonight against the Miami Heat.
-> Bet on Jokic — the NBA MVP favourite!
On first glance, the Heat don't seem like a great matchup because they rank fourth in defensive rating. But they are also playing at the fastest pace in the NBA, averaging 104.67 possessions per game.
With likely more possessions than he's used to, Jokic should have more opportunities to pad his sky-high assist totals.
Just last month, the big man put up 16 assists as part of a triple-double against Miami in a 10-point win.
Key stat: Against the Heat, Jokic is 2-1 vs. this prop since the start of last season, with 40 total assists in that span.
Best NBA picks
Camara under 14.5 points (-125): Camara has hit the 20-point mark in back-to-back games, but that's not a large enough sample to sway me toward the over.
On the season, the power forward is averaging 12.8 points. He's gone under in 19 of 32 games this season.
So it's been above a 50% hit rate this year, and I like the under in a matchup against some strong defensive bigs. The Dallas Mavericks have Cooper Flagg and Anthony Davis in their frontcourt.
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Davis is questionable to play, but even if he's out, I like Flagg and Co. to hold down the fort.
Against the Davis-less Mavericks last month, Camara finished with 11 points in 41 minutes of a high-scoring overtime loss (138-133).
Since the start of the 2023-24 season, this under is 6-2 when Camara faces Dallas.
NBA player prop predictions
Brunson over 2.5 threes (-120): Brunson has really ratcheted up his 3-point shot volume in the past few games, and he has the perfect matchup to keep that rolling tonight.
- In December, Brunson is attempting 8.5 threes per game. He averaged 7.5 attempts in 17 games before that.
- More notably, he has 11+ attempted 3s in each of his past three matchups. And he went 3-0 vs. this milestone prop in that span.
-> Bet on Jalen Brunson in tonight's Knicks vs. Pelicans matchup!
New Orleans allows the most 3-point attempts per game (41.7), so why should Brunson slow down now?
I'm hoping he doesn't, and at this line, I'll willingly take the plunge.
NBA prop picks made at 12:35 p.m. ET on Dec. 29, 2025.
