As the calendar flips from 2025 to '26, we've got four College Football Playoff matchups to look forward to.
The pregame narrative: The Miami (FL) Hurricanes and Ohio State Buckeyes kick things off with the Cotton Bowl on New Year's Eve, giving way to a Jan. 1 tripleheader to begin 2026. Watch out for the underdog Ole Miss Rebels in the Sugar Bowl as they rematch the Georgia Bulldogs.
Check out my best College Football Playoff picks for the Dec. 31 and New Year's Day games, featuring prop predictions on Jake Retzlaff and Malachi Toney.
BET FINDER: Search & Bet!
-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on college football
College Football Playoff picks
Best bet: Miami/Ohio State under 42 points (-110)
I have a ton of respect for the Buckeyes' defence, which boasts four players who could go in the first round of next year's NFL draft.
- Defensively, Ohio State ranks in the top five in NCAA Division I in yards per dropback, EPA per rush and rushing success rate, according to Game On Paper.
- The Buckeyes have allowed 8.2 PPG, which is the best mark in the country. Not a single opponent has scored 17+ points.
Miami was on the road in the first round of the CFP, clawing out a 10-3 victory over No. 7 Texas A&M. Quarterback Carson Beck was atrocious, throwing for just 103 yards on 20 attempts.
-> Go to full Miami vs. Ohio State Cotton Bowl markets
The Cotton Bowl will feature two stellar defences, as the Hurricanes certainly hold their own in that regard.
Led by Rueben Bain Jr., a surefire first-round pick coming off the edge, Miami ranks fourth in opponent PPG (13.0) and 14th in yards per play.
The Hurricanes forced three turnovers in their first playoff game while holding Texas A&M to 2.5 yards per rush.
Ohio State struggled to muster up offence in a 13-10 loss to Indiana in the Big Ten championship game, and I expect a similar defensive battle at Jerry World in Texas.
Key stat: Unders are 4-1 in Ohio State's past five games overall, and they're 4-1 in Miami's five games away from home this season.
Orange Bowl prediction
Oregon/Texas Tech under 52.5 points (-109): For teams with alumni like Marcus Mariota, LaMichael James, Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, it might feel wrong to bet the under.
But I have more faith in the defences than the offences. And it's as simple as that.
- Texas Tech and Oregon rank seventh and 16th, respectively, in defensive success rate. In offensive success rate, they rank 86th and 22nd, respectively.
- Both teams are allowing fewer than 17.0 PPG this season.
- Both teams rank in the top five in yards allowed per play.
Oregon's Dante Moore could be the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft if he chooses to come out. And TTU's Behren Morton led the Big 12 in passer rating this season. So there's strong offensive talent on both sides, too.
-> Bet now on No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
But the Ducks have finished well below this total in back-to-back games away from home. I think that'll happen again.
On the Red Raiders' side, unders are 7-3 in their past 10.
College football prop picks
Williams under 31.5 receiving yards (-122): After a superb freshman season, it seemed like the sky would be Williams' limit in 2025.
It hasn't panned out that way, though.
Williams has just four receiving TDs and 48.9 receiving yards per game this season. That's half as many touchdowns and nearly 20.0 yards/game fewer than last year.
Williams' 48.9 YPG is still well above this prop's line, but he's trending in the wrong direction.
- He only has four total catches in his past four games, averaging 15.8 yards in that span.
- Williams failed to garner a target in the Iron Bowl, and he was held to just one catch for five yards in Alabama's first-round matchup against Oklahoma.
In the Crimson Tide's first-round CFP win on Dec. 19, five receivers finished with more yards than Williams.
SEC passing leader Ty Simpson knows how to air it out, but he's rarely looking for Williams these days.
-> Don't miss out — bet on the upcoming College Football Playoff action!
Sugar Bowl prediction: ATS best bet
Ole Miss +7 (-120): Back in October, the Ole Miss Rebels carried a two-score lead — on the road — into the fourth quarter against the Georgia Bulldogs.
Georgia put up 17 unanswered points from there to win by eight, but again, it did so from the comfort of home.
In a rematch on a neutral field, I like the Rebels' chances of at least keeping this close.
- Since its loss to Georgia, Ole Miss is 4-1-1 ATS (and the ATS loss was a 49-0 victory as a -50 favourite vs. The Citadel).
- In their first game in the post-Lane Kiffin era, the Rebs earned a convincing 31-point victory in the first round of the CFP (as -16.5 favourites vs. Tulane).
Georgia is just 1-3 ATS in its past four games when favoured by four or more points. It's difficult to win — and cover — against the same team twice in less than three months.
College Football Playoff picks made at 2:45 p.m. on Dec. 29, 2025.
