Two overs and an under comprise my NFL Week 18 prop bets for the upcoming action.
Today's NFL prop bets narrative: The Baltimore Ravens are in must-win territory, but I don't expect Lamar Jackson to ball out on Sunday Night Football. Elsewhere, I'm anticipating a big performance from Tennessee Titans running back Tony Pollard.
Check out my top NFL Week 18 prop bets, featuring a bet on Bryce Young.
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NFL Week 18 prop bets
Best bet: Jackson under 27.5 pass attempts (-129)
Baltimore putting this game in Jackson's hands should be considered malpractice at this point.
The Ravens QB is clearly fighting through injuries and has not been healthy for almost the entire season.
The most obvious indicator of Jackson operating at less than full health is his diminished ability to avoid sacks.
-> Bet on Ravens vs. Steelers here
The usually nimble and evasive QB has been sacked on a career-worst 10.4% of his dropbacks this season.
In five fewer games played than last year, Jackson has been sacked 10 more times (33-23).
Baltimore is here thanks to the fantastic play of Derrick Henry in Week 17. The running back totalled 216 yards and four touchdowns on 36 carries in a 41-24 victory over the Green Bay Packers.
Expect a heavy dose of Henry and fade a compromised Jackson on Sunday night.
Key stat: Jackson has gone under this number in eight of his last 12 games.
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Best NFL picks
Young over 18.5 rushing yards (-115): This is the biggest game of Young's NFL career, and he's going to do whatever he can to win the game.
That likely means plenty of rushing. Young's rushing numbers are already up in recent outings. With Carolina fighting for the division, he's topped this total in four consecutive games.
-> Bet on Bryce Young to top his rushing yards prop
In fact, Young is averaging 10-plus rushing yards per game more than this total (29.8).
This is a plus matchup for the Panthers QB, too, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game to opposing QBs (21.9).
Pollard over 70.5 rushing yards (-114): Leaning on Pollard has been a successful strategy for Tennessee.
The Titans running back has seen plenty of work ahead of Week 18. He's averaging 19.5 carries and 113 rushing yards in his last four games.
Pollard has totalled 85-plus rushing yards in each of his last four outings, and I'm betting he can do it again.
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The Jacksonville Jaguars have been the toughest matchup for opposing RBs, allowing the fewest rushing yards per game to opposing RBs (68.1), but they did struggle to contain Pollard earlier this year.
Pollard had 60 rushing yards on just 10 carries in Week 14.
Oh, and Pollard is on bonus watch. The running back is owed $250,000 if he rushes for at least 65 yards.
NFL prop bets made at 3:03 p.m. ET on Jan. 2, 2026.
